This is not the first time I use the Pitchfork tool on Bitcoin and certainly it won't be the last as despite not being a popular indicator among traders, it has proven to me how effective it can be, even on the long-term at projecting Bitcoin trends. Last time I published such an analysis was on May 21:
See how accurately the price has been trading within the 0.236 levels with the median as the pivot ever since the May sell-off.
** Application of the Pitchfork ** On today's analysis, I am applying the Pitchfork even wider on the 1W time-frame. Starting from the November 2011 bottom and using the December 2013 as the High and the January 2015 as the Low, we see that BTC has been trading almost entirely within its levels, with just two break-outs in August 17 2015 and December 04 2017. That is why I've added the 1.5 (dotted black) line, which contained the price during those break-outs and the 2.0 (blue) line as future reference.
** The Buy Zones, the Channel Up and the 1W MA50 ** As the chart shows, the lower 1.0 - 0.5 lines provided in 2015 - 2016 the Buy Zone (exception being as mentioned the August 17 2015 candle) and during 2019 - 2020 that role was taken by the lower 0.5 - median lines (exception being the March 2020 COVID crash candle). This ascending pattern of the Buy Zones is attributed to the fact that since the December 2013 Cycle Top, Bitcoin has been trading within a Channel Up (blue pattern) and that's why the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been moving the Buy Zone in each Cycle higher and higher.
** The +.382 Fib progression ** Those who follow me on TradingView and Reddit before, know that the 0.382 Fib progression is a concept I've introduced years ago. That includes that, starting from the June 06 2011 and the November 14 2011 1W candles as High and Bottom respectively, every BTCUSD Cycle Peak that followed was on a 0.382 progression: the December 2013 was just below the 2.382 Fibonacci extension while the December 2017 on the 3.382 Fibonacci extension. Naturally, if this pattern continues to replicate this progression, the next Cycle Top should be near the 4.382 Fib extension, which is around 375k. A level a little below that number, combined by the introduction of the Pitchfork and its 1.5 'extreme' level, would be around $300000. So it wouldn't surprise me to see that as a Cycle peak within 2022.
What do you think about the above? Should we expect 300k based on this Pitchfork and Fibonacci combo? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Could be, but unlikely, 170k is more realistic, but you are the master anyway 🤷🏻♂️😄
fract
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@alfiestar, 200-300K is heaviest resistance according to general channel. 170k is in orange fib range
alfiestar
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@fract good analysis, when do you expect the market to reach its final peak ?
ButterDickinson
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Thank you for this analysis. I have a question though. On a fundamntal level, could we possibly reach 300k in 2022 or 2023, considering current tapering process, probable end of quantitative easing, and planned regulations on crypto assets (tax surveillance in Europe...)?
dianaelena27
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Again you are seeing unicorns. 😂
Sobhan_23
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Appreciate it and marry Christmas Trading shot team🌹
Suria97
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Wishful thinking no offence
UnknownUnicorn5920815
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Most likely the markets will dump into the summer. Every big player selling their stocks. Liquid alts like LUNA are making their last exit pumps. DOGE however is a telling sign of whats really going on: