ARE WE REACHING THE 86k?

Hello,

The past analysis stops on February 20th (as shown by the white shaded rectungular)

without explaing again all the price, volume and cycle action, what did i aspect in these past 5 days ?

1. after the liquidity recover and fakeout on 18th, i aspected a solid laterla position back in the 95-98K range, to confirm the fakeout.

2. a uptrend into the range (becasue otherwise the fakeout would have been a breakout) and then :

2a. bullish case : a strong breakout, namely BOS, with probabile drawdown and further break of 100K level, to confirm a change in trrend structure

2b. bearish case : a liquidity recovery until the 98K range, failing to break the 100K and downtrend back to the 95-98K range

3. in the bullish case: a probable recovery until 102-105K, drawdown and next uptrend.
in a bearish case main target were
a. 92K support a
b. 0.5 ineffency level left from start of february
c. 89K level from a downtrend spike on jan 13th.


What's the rational behind, these targets.

The uptrend of btc, and aalong with the total market cap, i will say the uptrend of the cryptomarket, is efivent in the long-term.
The monthly trendline are stable and persistent.
The question is when ?

Considering that, even in a bullish phase, these level and liquidity, left behind, will be taken, soon or after. Thus, recover sooner will help the future bullish movement to be more consistent and solid, ratehr than a scenario of liquidity void and high spikes, where can indicates bubbles or uncertainity in patterns and volumes.

Reality meet expectations ?

since im not god and good (yet), i always trade keeping in consideration different aspect ratehr than just price actions, volumes, cycles, fundaments.. etc.
As well, both scenario must be consider and searching for confirmation has been the most efficient approach.

1. the sharp uptrend within the range, could give signal of a breakout but should have been confirmed by a BOS, which didn't occur.

2. The lil ranging above 98K, along with the candlestick pattern, led to understand a NON-breakout (doubletop without wicks tends to indicate a change in trend), confirmed by a strong trend reversal. right after.

3. The return below the 92K is the confirmation for the bearish case, and for setting a short position, at least until 95K.

4. at 95K there is a situation common in the recent low tf btc development, cupshape. Small range inbetween 95-96K and new dpwn trend.

5. the last range to be broken for a huge confrimation is the past fakleouts one, around 94K.

breaking two range : the 96K keept for almost the wholoe february and 94K, arise from November, will be a trong indicator of a next bearish phase.

Summrized

BTC is going closer to a long-time-expected level, namely 88-86K. A Another range is waiting below this latter but, too soon to say.

The liquidation, Open interest and volumes shows this new target as a new consolidation levl before juping tot he starts again.
Here few fundamentals considerations, such as politics and institutional updats, must be taken into account to better understand why we drop, but from a technical point of view, this is a good sign for the healthyness and solidity of the market.

And remember, a drawdown is just a possibility for a new or better entrance ;


what's now? Next analysis on the profile .