Ok, now that I got that out of the way let's get on to what my thoughts are here. As many experts chart bitcoin in the smaller time frames, I think it should ONLY be looked at in the larger time frames on a Log scale, as that's where the trackable HODL patterns appear. Yes, Bitcoin moves in patterns. What I have discovered are 2 distinct flag poles with verbatim dips inside the flags. I have placed matching numbers to identify. As you can see, Pole A played its role to a Tee, and now Pole B is in the process of doing the same. It’s in the midst of the 3a part on the chart.
Bitcoin moves cannot be predicted, many have tried and failed miserably. Others give a bunch of if/then statements, that calls for more if/thens nested in other if/thens. Stuff like, if it goes above x level, it will go higher. Then they take credit because it went above x level, like it did many times before but then it retreats after a few hundred dollars above x level, and all of sudden this guy’s the greatest chartist that ever lived, because he claims he guided you into a trade that netted a few hundred dollars upside. That’s all a load of crap because ALL of Bitcoins key levels get tested multiple times before major moves take place.
As of today there is NO other Bitcoin chart showing these 2 poles, this is the first. So if you see anyone publishing anything similar to this theory, you know where it came from.
Anyway, just remember HODLing is the winningest (is that a word?) strategy bar none!
It amazes me, as of yesterday... only 2.2% of all wallets owned 1 whole Bitcoin or more, and this is down from 2.43%. It's clear people are losing their coins to FUD and/or failing trades where you end up selling bottoms and chasing tops, completely obliterating your holdings. I can only shake my head in disbelief. I would encourage all who are reading this, since no one truly took heed to my rant about "Do Not Look", stop wasting your time and energy. Buy your bitcoin, keep it off the exchanges and in your own wallet with your own private key. Do not concern yourself with short term volatility. You'll thank me later. GL!
Let's take a look at the current flag and establish some measurements. In order to determine a flags breakout length. You need to take the height of the pole, swing low to high, and add that distance starting from the bottom of the flag. My calculations is 5151/19903 as the swing low to high, and 6012 as the bottom of the flag. The reason I use 5151 is because this is where a slight correction occurred on the pole (labeled 1) before the sustained ramp continuation upward. The formula for the cold hard numbers is... (19903-5151)+6012=20764. If this bullish flag moves to completion we can see a medium term price target of 20,764. This is being conservative. GL!
Please totally ignore what you just read. Put your coins in storage away from exchanges. Far away!... and HODL. Don't worry about short/medium or even long term targets. Bitcoin will be a rear one of a kind Store Of Value mechanism/asset where the demand will put so much pressure on the limited supply, that the price squeeze is going to make many people physically ill when they think back at a not to distant past, and have to come to grips with the thought that they actually had an opportunity to own 1 whole unit but squandered it. Don't be that person!
Not sure how to answer that. If you were investing in a early stage company, let's say Facebook. How would you answer the question.. "What are the odds of the stock not going up?"
You can't. It's either you believe it's a winning idea and technology, or you don't. If you do, then you start with that premise and ignore all the irrelevant noise, and you invest in it.
You should have some sought of long term valuation thesis as your target, not to necessarily get out at, but to see the investment through. You must do your research to draw your own conclusions. On Jan 2017, I posted some bullish proclamations about Netflix... https://stocktwits.com/streetgainer/message/72070319 and https://stocktwits.com/streetgainer/message/75604124
I Ignored all the Netflix BUBBLE talk from so called experts who for years been shorting and spreading FUD about the company in hopes of a collapse. Today their talking about Apple buying Netflix, hmmm.. so much for the bubble, and I am seeing that investment through as Netflix is part of my core equities portfolio. I have a valuation thesis for Bitcoin, and I will see it through. I pretty confident about it. Hope this helps.
Its very risky, I know I must quit doing this but its like an obsession. I wake up at 13:00, and go to bed like 7:00 am, its really toxic, nothing cool about doing like 200 dollars a day, while destroying your mind and body.
Thanks for the TA