BTC 4H Deviation Setup or Breakdown to $48K

26 Feb

Possible 4H deviation setup for HTF trend continuation, or breakdown to probably 48k level.

Look how price once closed below never closed back above on the 4H with clean retests: this means that this is a respected level (and the retest also meant the short entry). Might be obvious why this is a relevant level as this low caused the HH and therefore is the new HL.

I should have recognised the environment but I didn't, now I might lose out on the full trade.

Anyways: hope for another retest of the level where I put my entry limit orders for the short with SL at red dashed line. Invalidation = candle close above level on the 4H TF.

Candle close above the 4H would immediately mean a long setup (and for me also a spot buy since this should then be the HTF HL) with SL at the lowest low.

28 Feb

Dagangan aktif

I woke up to the breakdown which leaves me to yet a worse entry. But price broke down significantly from the deviation level so no deviation on the table I think. I opened a short here with no invalidation, only hopes of not going back up.

SL is the highest retest of the level.

28 Feb

Nota

Nahh I can't short this, it's against my principles, based on FOMO. -0.09R. Original deviation level retest short entry remains.

1 Mac

Nota

Hmmm, let's not act so cool now and just short the obvious. For a deviation level to actually deviate a clean retest is usual but why should that be for a non-deviation (the short?)...

Obvious spot is the thursday highest high which I put limit orders on with a SL at $90850 (random SL just to make it wide enough so I don't lose more than 0.33R on a rip through the level).

2 Mac

Nota

Got out BE actually (not paid any fees too if I understand the new exchange system correctly), couldn't believe this pump to go on high and closing it after candle close (15min) above level would already be a -0.5R so was willing to take the risk. Original retest of level plan with original SL (thus, the higher SL) still intact so let's see what happens if/when price hits the level.

3 Mac

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

-0.66R.

I guess it wasn't a deviation level but the up-move makes it still seem like a deviation. It isn;t though as there never was a clean retest which you always get befor the push back up.

- Unlucky on the previous 4H candles which seemed to make my level a respected level and, looking at the environment, the possible deviaton level;

- Unlucky on the last 4H candle close being 15min before the push to the level, me having to wait 4H for the invalidation (though price almost -0.33R'ed on one 15min candle.

- Lucky with the first short, otherwise could've got a -1.65R.

No complaints, SL was fine, not the full 1R loss and this push up really surprised me.

This push also made the environment really easy:

- Clean 15min SFP at the highs should be a free short, TP might be the lowest low;
- No SFP at the highs but still 'breakdown' is almost guaranteed HTF trend continuation as price now already closed back in the structure, and without breakdown PA this should be a free HL or SFP at the lows.

4 Mac

Nota

4-3-2025

Pfff what a structure haha.

Key takeaway: putting in limit orders on levels has to this day never worked out for me. Still I keep on doing it. Why?

1) I get so hyped after envisioning how I think it should look, and then I just want to try it out and see what happens.

2) I get FOMO thinking I won't get another chance to enter if it does play out like I wanted it to play out.


Both I can invalidate now:

1) I need to keep in mind the financial future: though having conviction and trying this out makes the game more fun to me, this harms my fincancial future which I can't afford.

2) After getting alot better in the dynamic of SL and invalidation, combined with the better knowledge of LTF PA (mini-MSB's), I can recognize more chances to still get in the trade after missing out the first bit, without risking more R: I recognize the new chance faster and therefore can open the trade closer to the new invalidation risking less R.

So, to my four followers and people who might see this on Tradingview: from now on I won't put any limit orders on a level anymore. I always wait on what the reaction to the level will be and if I think I see something I first check on the previous data I have and only then I'll react accordingly.


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About the failed Deviation level retest trade: the correct thing to do here was wait for the level to get hit, then wait for a LTF mini-MSB or some kind of SFP which would provide the invalidation, and then enter the trade where I would maintain the original wide SL but have the invalidation be the LTF PA (close to entry) instead of the 4H close which would take a long time having the opportunity to completely wipe me out -1R.

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Current thoughts LTF environment: getting back to the highest high at 94k without getting to the lowest low of 78k first, will likely present the short to 48k, going to 78k first might produce the HTF HL for bull trend continuation but will be harder to play right.

What stands out to me, which gives me positive HTF trend continuation thoughts, is the fact that price went up to 94k but never created any type of short potential: when price goes straight up without creating a LTF HL and then breaks down again: this creates two things:

- No possibility, not even the slightest like the mini-MSB, of a short gives potential for a bullish environment to be created: why does price break down if there isn't any resistance created (which you already get when you get the mini-MSB);

- Price going straight up means no structure being formed on the left of the highest high, thus: when price breaks down after the highest high has been created (now creating the right side of the highest high), there is no structure which price can fall below to, so there is no resistance. Why does price still break down? Odd... The structure to the right is resistance, but not a very strong one: if price makes the SFP at the lows this can't provide any resistance, thus leading price to go back up with then a great likelyhood of creating the HTF HL. But to now if the SFP is a valid one, is a bit tricky: you would probably have to wait for a LTF MS shift: when price makes the SFP, you then look at the last structure before making the SFP, and if price then gets above it without creating new short/breakdown PA, you need to take the chance of calling the SFP valid and entering a long/buying spot.