NaughtyPines

THE WEEK AHEAD: CIEN, TLT

NYSE:CIEN   CIENA CORP
EARNINGS

CIEN announces earnings on 8/31 (Thursday) before market open.

Due to the size of the underlying, I would probably go short straddle or iron fly here, as a short strangle and/or iron condor really don't pay.

The Sept 8th 24 short straddle is currently paying a 2.35 credit at the door with break evens wide of the expected move, while the Sept 8th 21/24/24/27 iron fly pays 1.92 with break evens right at the expected.

OTHER HIGH RANK/HIGH IMPLIED VOLATILITY PLAYS

There are currently no other liquid high rank/high implied volatility individual stocks with >70%/>50% metrics out there I consider worth playing. For example, ANF             and UNIT have the right metrics, but I can't seem to get enough premium out of a setup to make a play in either worthwhile.

Similarly, there aren't any exchange-traded funds at >70%/>35% rank/implied volatility .

LOW RANK/LOW IMPLIED VOLATILITY PLAYS

TLT             (9/10) has both low rank and lowed implied volatility such that a low volatility strategy might make sense (i.e., calendar or diagonal). The Oct/Dec 40 delta back/same strike front skip month 125 put calendar (say that three times fast) currently costs a 1.31 debit/contract to put on. Given the fact that you generally shoot for 10-20% max out of these, multiples might be required to make it worthwhile ... .

VIX            

I've been waiting for a term structure trade opportunity for months now, but it looks like I'll have to continue doing the same. There aren't any /VX futures that are greater than 16 with 90 days or less to go; the first /VX expiry at greater than 16 is way out in March ... .
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