Eball8
Panjang

Civic - Risky Trade Could lead to a 300% return

BITTREX:CVCUSD   Civic / Dollar (calculated by TradingView)
I will definitely update with another picture here of what's happening now, but I see an opportunity that we may be able to take advantage of. There is not much risk in terms of a stop loss, but there is risk in terms of the target never being met. The next update will show you why this is so. Another analyst brought to my attention this cup and handle , and I think we have an opportunity here. My projections are just a bit more modest.
Komen:


So first, this is why I say the trade is "risky." This update covers another possibility that could happen here. The coin on the left is Reddcoin (Recommend you all to take a look at that TA). That coin has shown similar movements, as far as a very large pump with immediate rejection. That lead us to a truncated 5th wave. One that fails to reach it's target. So, though that is possible, it could still deliver a nice 60% return.

There are just a few things that lead me away from this count. This count here makes sense to me, but in the end, wave 4 retraces a little too far, and that makes me skeptical of this count. Also, truncated fifths don't happen that much, so it's not necessarily good to assume that. But the very big cup and handle lead me to think that this has a lot of room to grow.

The next update will cover what is happening now.
Komen:

When in doubt, stay pessimistic until you are proven wrong.
So right now, we're going to play the idea of a truncated 5th. I will exit this trade once our target 1 is reached (or the end of this current wave). Then I will look for signs of continuation IF the retrace after this wave fits the analysis of a cup and handle.
Komen:

BOOM! Just passed critical level. Target 3 seems the most likely here. But don't deny the target 4!
Komen:

Updated Targets. 5.1 seems the most likely, but 5.2 is possible. A likely 50% gain from entry at the bottom of the channel. An EXIT after this trade is important, we're still playing the idea of a truncated 5th!
Komen:

This is why I say the trade is risky, and why i took profit at $1.40. Candles are very volatile and wave count is hard with these types of low volume coins. They typically hit truncated fifths because their 3rd waves are so impulsive.

So, is this trade closed? Absolutely not. I honestly don't know why I just said what I said. But our targets have lowered. We will do is see how this next day plays out. MACD is uptrending and it seems like there is some momentum. But if it fails to break above that yellow line then I have to close this trade and because by that point it gets too risky.

Later down the road I am 100% coming back to this coin. Like I said, the growth pattern reminds me of Reddcoin. Reddcoin has a bright future, this does to.
Perdagangan ditutup secara manual: That is why I said this trade is risky! We're losing steam and it looks like we just finished a B corrective wave. If you go to the Daily Chart, it looks like 3 waves. Daily MACD is downtrending pretty well.

I don't like this trade for now. But I WILL return! Like i said it reminds me of Reddcoin. And look at RDD now! :D
Komen:

Here is what I am seeing. A 300% return will eventually come I believe. But not for now.
Komen:

Civic broke resistance and is headed for a 100% profit!

We just finished an ABCDE wedge here and we are headed to these two targets next. We've already completed wave 1 and are on wave 2. This reminds me EXACTLY of Reddcoins. I like my chances here. I have my eyes on this and Mysterium for now. The babies will give us life while the Big boys consolidate!!

Stop loss is just a little below the .728 fib retrace line. This 2nd wave may take a day or 2. Reddcoin's did and I never even noticed it.
Komen:

So it looks like we'll probably push down to the .618 level! Should take a day or 2 for this consolidation to finish up and we should get a pretty powerful 3rd wave here. Pretty excited to see the boat moving here! :D
Komen:

We're nearing the end of this consolidation, but what happens here is very important. I still have not entered the trade yet. But What I want to see happen is us staying in this yellow triangle until we break north of the white resistance. If we break to the east (right), then we will count this as a failed breakout and continue to a WXY continuation pattern.
Komen:

Does anybody else see this reverse head and shoulders?

So we are in a critical moment. Where if we don't get a push through the critical target line TODAY, then we are likely to head back down to 94 cents. The red line is where we need to stay above, and the green line is where we need to target.

On the Daily chart, the MACD is starting to push down and the Stoch RSI is close to crossing over, if we fail to break through, we are likely to correct from a few more days to a week.
Komen:

2 Months = 200% Gain. Guys, I still really like Civic, it's just moving slower than expected. I think we find support on this trend line and gradually raise to higher along this 3rd wave. Wave 1 was pretty impulsive with a sharper correction, so I don't think we'll get much velocity with this wave 3. BUT, like always, i could be wrong!
Komen:

I have to officially call Civic a shitcoin. There is no eligible wave count with this coin. It seems that its price is fully dependent on the health of the market. When elliot wave law is not applicable to price movements, and we see a retrace this large, most of the time a recovery for consistent future growth will depend on a spark of fundamental structure. That's the main concern with this coin. It was a risky trade to begin with. I've fully ignored this coin for the most part and haven't even looked at it until someone requested this TA. But it does not deserve my attention.

This is why all my updates are only on Bitcoin right now. It is the market driver, and the best indicator we have on market health. But it is also exposing those coins that truly were lacking in fundamentals. I'm trading no other coin right now other than Bitcoin (and the other big ones, but I'm really only focused on Bitcoin). I don't even believe Bitcoin is done correcting, and that we may see sub $8k. Maybe even $6k again. We will see.
What stop loss price would you suggest after entering buying?
Balas
Eball8 cryptomonger
@cryptomonger, I don't use stop losses for these types of trades, I only use them for scalping and small trades. I just look for signs of bearishness and big reversals. No sign of that yet. If my wave count is correct, then it cant drop any lower until it reaches at least the last high again.
Balas
@Eball8, Thank you. I am new to charts and learning from your excellent posts. When you say your wave count, which point price wise can't it go any lower until it reaches at least new high?
Balas
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