Canadian Dollar Futures: Flag

I know it is not advisable to try and pick a bottom..I have learned this lesson many times. However when I noticed today price had dipped below the .618...Daily RSI was in oversold territory... and it made a pinbar on the 5 minute chart with decent volume...I decided to take a shot. But I am going to try a different approach to catching a bottom this time.

My plan is to try to long from this .618 area when I see a bullish candle/pinbar on the low time frames with my stop below that candle. I will move the stops to breakeven/cover costs after I am up some pips.
This might not be a great plan, but I see it as a way to potentially catch a large move without using a large stop loss which might get spiked out anyway. If the Canadian Dollar is going to start a large move up anytime soon, then I might just get lucky enough to get in with the small risk and hold on for the longer term move.

I believe this idea is also in accordance with a quote I have recently found by Paul Tudor Jones:

“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”

I am not saying he means exactly what I am trying here but...I think it fits the overall strategy for this trade.


I am happy to hear (read) any comments on this idea or strategy. Wish me luck!


P.S. A big thank you to @MaryJane for her educational posts on the 1-2-3 Trading Strategy and the Flag Pattern (linked below), both of which have helped me with my trading and analyses!

Dagangan aktif:

First attempt: Entered at 0.72655. Stops are now at 0.72665, covering my costs.

Dagangan aktif:

On the first attempt I was stopped out with no loss.

Second attempt: 0.7258 early this morning with stops below the day's low. Now stops moved to 0.7257, which seems a little safer place than 0.7259 just for the sake of covering costs

Komen:

Not bad for a second attempt! "Even the losers get lucky sometimes," I guess.

I decided to move the stops to cover my costs to stay consistent with my plan, but not to take profit before the weekend. This is in accordance with another quote from Paul Tudor Jones:
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them..."
If this is truly the start of the big move, then it should be no problem anyway. If it's not, then there is always the third attempt :)

"Money is made by sitting, not trading.” – Jesse Livermore

Komen:

Will consider adding in this area depending on the price action

Komen:

First attempt to add on @ 0.73015 ...risking 5 pips.

I will see if I can get lucky to move to breakeven/cover costs if it moves in my favor some pips. If not, I will try again :)

Komen:

First attempt gained 7.5 pips, by which point I had moved stops to cover costs. No loss.

Second attempt @ 0.7394, the .5 fib. Looking to employ same strategy...

Komen:

At this moment up 16 pips -- these charts are delayed as I am not a PRO :( -- stops are now covering costs again

Komen:

Stopped out of my 2nd position again for no loss...for now watching to add at this potential Bullish Gartley

Komen:

Took some patience but I think we are moving on to the next leg here. Some possible targets of mine are designated by the horizontal blue lines, although reaching them will likely take patience as well

Dagangan aktif:

Re-entered a minute ago after strong bounce from the quick drop in CAD.

Entered 0.7279 , stop loss below last week's low for now.

No chart because it's delayed on here :(

Komen:

For reasons similar to this:

Komen:

Price at this moment is 0.7280 (chart is delayed), added another position here

Dagangan aktif:

Completed this 15 minute Bullish Gartley. after a decent retracement Added some at 0.73385, with some still not picked up. Leaving the order for now, but if I go up ~10-15 pips I will cancel the rest and move stops to breakeven as per the strategy described in the original idea

Komen:

"Money is made by sitting, not trading.” – Jesse Livermore

Komen:

2 big tests coming up next week...would not be surprised to see a pullback which may give another good entry. The daily and weekly candle closed strong so I will only take profits if I see bearish signs in these areas next week, otherwise I am sticking to the original plan.

Komen:

Still holding my original contract but all of the others I added were stopped out at breakeven at some point. That is the downside of this strategy, But still, the one contract is doing well, up ~300 pips in 3 weeks.

It appears to be slowing down so I am getting ready to take profit and perhaps even switch to short for the time being, based on the bearish Bat pattern and apparent resistance at the .618 area.

I still think this may be a huge flag with great potential but I can always get back in, hopefully lower :)

Dagangan ditutup secara manual:

It is 10:13 AM, Canadian Interest Rate Decision seemed to please people...but price just bounced from the exact entry of the Bat @ 0.7440 and so I am taking profit now, 0.7437

Dagangan aktif:

It's 11 minutes later, just entered short at 0.744 with stop loss just above the zone

Komen:

I can be a lucky sob sometimes

After I am up a few pips will move stops to cover the costs and see if my luck will continue

Komen:

Closed out for a 3 pip gain -- will see how the market reacts to FOMC minutes before making next move