Read Here Todays Opinion Polls untuk TVC:DEU30 oleh SwissView

This "trading idea" is published to provide unbiased and accurate data as available and additional information about stockmarket, investor and traders bias.

This trading idea is not published to predict any result about the upcomming election in France or Netherlands.

Trader can use this information to be up to date and to compare the market bias with latest polls.

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FEB 25 2017: What you need to know about the election:

The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017.

Incumbent president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is eligible to run for a second term, but declined to do so on 1 December 2016. Benoît Hamon won the nomination for the Socialist Party in the presidential primaries on 29 January 2017.

According to opinion polls, François Fillon for The Republicans and Marine Le Pen for the National Front led in the first round of polling in 2016 and the start of 2017. By late January and early February 2017, a shifting and tightening of the polls began, with Emmanuel Macron for the new En Marche! organization potentially making the second round. Polls for the second round of voting suggest either Fillon or Macron would beat Le Pen and that Macron would beat Fillon.
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FEB 25 2017: Divergency

The Market Consesview until Feb 22nd was that Marine LePen is going to win the first round by a simulated probability of 93%.
Quote: France’s far-right National Front (FN) movement has never seemed closer to power. In first-round polling, Marine Le Pen, the party’s leader, is now comfortably ahead of her likeliest rivals, Emmanuel Macron and François Fillon. Mr Fillon is embroiled in scandal over payments to his wife and children for what critics call fictitious work. And Mr Macron’s description of French colonial stewardship over Algeria as a “crime against humanity” while visiting the North African country did not do him wonders at the polls. Quote:

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FEB 25 2017: The Fears until Feb 22nd

FEB 21 2017: Fears about LePen starting to show

Marine Le Pen could 'blow up' the European Union, and the fear's starting to show

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FEB 25 2017: Market Vies until Feb 22nd:

FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.

Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again

Quote:
by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source:

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FEB 25 2017: Unexpected Change:

Francois Bayrou stopped campaigning and backs now Macron.

FEB 22 2017: BREAKING: French centrist politician Bayrou says will not stand in presidential election; will back Macron

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FEB 25 2017: Market View changed after Bayrou backs Macron

FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt

Source:https://www.ft.com/content/d2ca3218-f9a9-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71

Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.

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FEB 25 2017: Bond Market reacts quickly - Yields dropped. Available Information showing that again huge bets of oversea investors are betting against France (and Italy). The market reaction is showing clearly, that investors got cought on the wrong foot and start to cover their short positions.

France Yields: Fear Indicator / French Election

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FEB 25 2017: New polls showing that the gap between LePen and Macron is narrowing for the first round of election.

FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting

Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%

This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days. Source:

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FEB 25 2017: Trump backfires European Far Right Wing Parties

What Analysts and Traders might have underestimated is that Europeans have diffrent view about Donald Trump than Anglo-Americans have. Trumps disapproval rate in Europe is arround 80% now. All far right party leaders supporting Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The fears about Trump and Putin are rising now - same time fears about refugees or globalistion falling behind.

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FEB 25 2017: Fact´s vs. Traders Investors

FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"

Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source:

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FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
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FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.

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FEB 25 2017 France's Macron raises curtain on election alliance to beat Le Pen

France's presidential race took a new turn on Thursday as independent Emmanuel Macron raised the curtain on a partnership with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou to help him beat the far-right's Marine Le Pen.
"Political times have changed. We cannot continue as before. The National Front is at the gates of power. It plays on fear," Macron said, referring to Le Pen's once-shunned party. Source:

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FEB 25 2017 France's Hollande fires back at Trump over Paris comments

France's Hollande fires back at Trump over Paris comments
French President Francois Hollande fired back at Donald Trump on Saturday after the U.S. president remarked in a speech that a friend thought "Paris is no longer Paris" after attacks by Islamist militants. Hollande said Trump should show support for U.S. allies. "There is terrorism and we must fight it together. I think that it is never good to show the smallest defiance toward an allied country. I wouldn't do it with the United States and I'm urging the U.S. president not to do it with France," Hollande said.

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FEB 26 2017: Quote: What you need to know about the French presidential election
Populist Marine Le Pen is favourite to win the first round the French presidential election, but who she may meet in the second round is still unclear. DW has rounded up the best content to keep you informed. Source:

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FEB 26 2017 Quote: France's Le Pen refuses police interview over funding claims

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FEB 26 2017: What´s right now is not in any discussion and what might change the pre-election sentiment is that Le Pen might loses immunity over this fraud case. This could change markets sentiment for some days even it might not change the elections result.

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FEB 26 2017: For German Readers

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FEB 2016: Market Fears: Quote: Paris (AFP) - With the polls narrowing and one of her main rivals embroiled in an expenses scandal, far-right leader Marine Le Pen could feasibly become French president in May, senior politicians and commentators say.
At the headquarters of her National Front (FN) party in Nanterre outside Paris, officials believe the same forces that led to the Brexit vote in Britain and Donald Trump's victory in the United States could carry Le Pen to power. Source:

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The Post above is from FEB 26 2017, the article from Feb. 24th.

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FEB 26 2017: Macron would beat Le Pen in French presidential runoff: poll
World3 hours ago (Feb 26, 2017 09:54AM ET)
Quote: (Reuters) - Independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat far right leader Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election with 61 percent of the vote, according to an Odoxa/Dentsu-Consulting poll on Sunday. Source:

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Comment: FEB 26 2017: Bond Traders Master French Politics as Latest Treasuries Trigger
While speeches by President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen loom large for Treasuries traders this week, unforeseen developments in Europe may wind up fueling the most volatility. Source:

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FEB 26 2016: New France Poll: Macron narrows gap to LePen for first round of FFrance election
Macron: 25%
LePen: 27%

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FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
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FEB 27 2017: New Poll: Wilders taking the lead
PVV (Wilders): 29 Seats
VVD (Dutch Prime Minister Rutte): 25 Seats

Wilders PVV still lost 25% from last years highes approval likely to win 37 Seats. Source and more informations here:

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FEB 27 2017: New German Poll: Far right win AfD lost 50% of likely voters.

For German Readers:

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FEB 28 2017: New Claims About FN funding
Source:

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FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it

Qoute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.

A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016

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FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:

Todays numbers:
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 22 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)

Todays reading of 22 Seats (from 150) is the lowest number for Geert Wilders since 2015. In June 2016 Wilders PVV would had won 37 (!) seats. this is a loss of 15 seats or allmost 40%. Germany´s far right wing party AfD is showing exactely same numbers. In summer 2016 the AfD was noticed with up to 18 % of likely voters. Latest polls showing 8,5% or a loss of up to 50% of likely voters. The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
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FEB 28 2017 MEPs vote to lift Marine Le Pen's immunity for tweeting violent Isil images

Quote: A Group of European members of parliament on Tuesday voted "overwhelmingly" to lift the immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for tweeting pictures of Isil violence.
Ms Le Pen, 48, an MEP, is under investigation in France for posting three graphic images of Isil executions on Twitter in 2015, including the beheading of the American journal. Source:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-angers-french-police-threat-purge-civil-servants/

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MAR1 2017: Dutch Prime Minster Rutte is taking the lead.

FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:

Todays numbers:
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 25 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)
The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
Source:

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MAR 01 2017: Macron closing in on LePen. Market Consensus is that LePen is going to win the first round of election clearly.

Todays Polls for first round of election:
LePen 25%
Macron 24%

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MAR 01 2017: For German Readers. What you cab read today in SPON is what we are discussing here now for quite a while. Just read it ...

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MAR 02 2017: First time Opinion Polls showing Macron taking the lead, Marine LePen second.

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MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground

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MAR 05 2017:

Todays Polls for first round of election:
LePen: 26%
Macron: 25%

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MAR 06 2017: Polls unch.

The Dutch election was wide open going into the last full week of campaigning, as support for the populist message of Geert Wilders declined and Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to pick up the balance.
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MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
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MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
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MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
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MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20

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MAR13 2017: New Polls showing that Wilders far right anti muslim and anti EU Party is not able to take the lead in the Netherlands Election right now.

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MAR 16 2017: Polls Show Populist Le Pen Could Win First Round Of France’s Presidential Election

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MAR 21 2017:
European stocks close lower, as lift from debate fades for French equities

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

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MAR 24 2017, French Election: Macron still leading.
Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%

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MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Source:

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MAR 28 2017: Opinion Polls first round

Macron 25,5%
LePen 25,0%

The regional election in Germany (Saarland State) on Sunday March 26th 2017 showed a much higher number of voters than in the elections before. Voters cleary said, asked by Journalists and broadcased on tv, that they dicided to go this election to stop "any populism". What they mean but did not said in expressis verbis is to stop the far right populism. Same happened in the Netherlands and same happened in the USA. Hillary Clinton won the popular votes by a wide numbers of approximately 3 Mio. voters.

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Comment: MAR 28 2017: Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of 'Penelopegate'

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source:
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews

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APR 03 2017: "France will vote in a two-round presidential election at the end this month and at the start of May, with investors worried by the risk that the far-right anti-EU Marine Le Pen could stage a surprise victory"
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APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source:

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:

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APR 05 2017 - French election debate: Macron marches on as Le Pen loses out
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: Castro: Trump associates will end up in jail
Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) says that if he was a betting man, based on the evidence he's seen that some associates of President Donald Trump will go to jail for their ties to Russia's meddling in the US election.Source: CNN
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:

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APR 06 2017 What Trump has said about Syria and Assad

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APR 06 2017: STRIKING ASSAD IS RISKIER FOR TRUMP THAN IT WAS FOR OBAMA

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APR 07 2017 - U.S. strikes Syrian military airfield in first direct assault on Bashar al-Assad’s government

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APR 07 2017 - US fires over 50 missiles at Syria: Reuters

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APR 07 2017 - Kremlin says Syria strikes do significant damage to US-Russia ties

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APR 08 2017 Russia has 'egg on their face' after Trump airstrike, says former US ambassador to Syria

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APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016

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APR 08 2017: Populist Johnson stays away from Populist Putin
Quote: UK's Johnson cancels Moscow visit after Syria gas attack

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APR 09 2017: Clashes at French far-right leader Le Pen rally in Corsica

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APR 10 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France
Quote: France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win. Source:

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APR 10 2017 - French Election Becomes a Four-Way Race as Melenchon Surges

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APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result

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Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightly

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Facing election defeat, France's Le Pen flip-flops on euro

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Marine Le Pen accused of plagiarising François Fillon in May Day speech