For some time now, the ES has practically done nothing but go up. The last time that I remember anything actually significant happening in terms of volatility in this market was election night, which was a minor hiccup & was followed by a full recovery the next morning. There isn't much to be said here, aside from the fact that the ES is at all time highs, while the VIX is at all time lows.... Something's gotta give at some point. The question is when.
Factors? (1) QE2 (will the central banks really let that go), (2) Rush of money from tax cuts to shareholders, (3) Higher interest rates vs. the same or less spending by consumers? (4) inflation from housing, property.
Assumptions: central bank have diminishing returns overtime, investors find less predictive power in the markets, central banks will do anything to dampen inflation while trying to revive inflation. Once those policies dampen the markets enough there will be a sudden reversal. Sudden blowbacks from those most effected by these policies. Governments will continue to squander trillions, corporation earnings will become flat after squeezing taxpayers, and the markets loose confidence and reverse. Just a happy thought on "tax cut grifter day".
Assumptions: central bank have diminishing returns overtime, investors find less predictive power in the markets, central banks will do anything to dampen inflation while trying to revive inflation. Once those policies dampen the markets enough there will be a sudden reversal. Sudden blowbacks from those most effected by these policies. Governments will continue to squander trillions, corporation earnings will become flat after squeezing taxpayers, and the markets loose confidence and reverse. Just a happy thought on "tax cut grifter day".