Ethereum is in a perfect bullish Gartley potential reversal zone. A "perfect" Gartley is defined as one that has an AB=CD and a 1.27BC=CD. On top of this we also have the first bullish wiseman signal on the 1D chart and if it were to continue up it would activate the other two signals. There's also the usual bullish divergence and a potential completed triangle pattern (possibly a Wolfe wave?).
On the other hand if this chart were to break down under the low it would be a good idea to stop out and reverse to make back your losses. For now the long-side has great risk/reward, Initial profit objective would be around 0.015 and 2nd target would be around 0.023, if this is a Wolfe wave the target could be as high as 0.034. It will likely be a good idea to get more aggressive on the long side if this breaks above 0.0115
Bitcoin is also looking very bearish so this compliments that set up perfectly and both are extremely good r/r with potential reverse trades if the stops are hit.
Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai
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Seems like this is going to resume the downtrend. Our small initial position got stopped and now it may be profitable to reverse this trade by either taking out an equally small short or by simply holding BTC. Luckily we never got the signal to get aggressive with this trade so our losses have been contained so far, and the reverse trade on BTC has been doing well enough to more than make up for any losses on ETH. Not only that but I personally had been holding bitcoin on my stop buy orders so that also acted as a hedge as well.
Since it appears that this Gartley is likely to fail on ETHBTC, we now move to the next signal down which is another Gartley on ETHUSDt around 4.5. This would make sense if ETHBTC began to fall significantly from here.
Komen
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It's also possible that this was just a stop run, because at this point the Gartley itself isn't completely invalidated only the wiseman signal was. I'd still be careful either way but if the final resistance zone on bitcoin actually continues to hold then ETHBTC could see some gains soon. Also I'd watch for any buy signals on ETH to go long on if the downtrend on bitcoin continues.
Komen
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Looks like we hit my highest target at 0.034. There could be significant resistance here but I wouldn't be surprised if we do eventually continue up from here and break the ETHBTC ATH because this still has a ton of momentum, so long as the lower supports continue to hold on this retracement.
Check the updates on that chart for more info. I also have a list of over a dozen bearish signals on bitcoin and the only bullish signals are the trend and the price which basically ALWAYS look bullish right up until the very end of the trend. Of course it could still break up from here but that is really unlikely and if it did you could reverse and make a profit in either direction.
Anoinvest
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Checking it backwards. You made excelent call here. Well done
ltc-joe
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Surely there will be a nice correction upwards at some point (*could be soon depending on btc as you mentioned although I wouldnt count on it) and that will be a nice trade to take agreed, but bigger picture I have hard time seeing eth/btc going past .015 for a very long time. Mayyyybee a squeeze a bit higher to say .017--.019 but I do not think that is likely. However high it goes it will be another lower high relative to btc, Eth has a ton to figure out if it wants to succeed in the long term. Thanks for your charts and analysis.
Intuit
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@btc_joe, I could see us going over .03 and then back under .015 in 2017, so you could be right on the average price but it could swing wildly around there, especially if BTC falls down to 600 usd or so and becomes temporarily undervalued, a lot of money could flow into ETH as a hedge and push us up to around .03
ltc-joe
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@Intuit, Respectfully disagree, after such a humongous drop (really the popping of a bubble) I have a hard time seeing it recover so quickly even assuming an environment btc weakness. In my view the best case scenario for 2017 would be similar to btc in 2015, so maybe a bottom around here or as low as .004-.005 or so--a year of rangebound fluctuation--then finish strong to potentially 2-3x th bottom which would be .015 (for btc this was $150 bottom, finishing the year around $450). And thats an optimistic view IMO, but I am biased, never was a huge fan of ETH. Time will tell : )
Intuit
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@btc_joe, We'll have to see what happens. I think we'll get a correction around 0.15-0.23 and then after that continue up to 0.034. Basically doing what BTC did between 2015-2016 and slowly retracing about 80% of the downtrend in about a year.
ltc-joe
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@Intuit, haha I must be missing something, when did bitcoin erase 80% of its downtrend in a year? Top was over $1000, jan 1 -dec 31 15' was basically the bottom at $150 to eventually close the year strong at $450.
Intuit
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@btc_joe, From September 2015 to Now, which is like 15 months, a little over a year. Its not even really comparable though because they are completely different sized waves. Bitcoin had been out for almost 4 years before the Gox hack happened, ETH has only been around for 5 months or so before it topped out.
ltc-joe
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@Intuit, ah okay gotcha, was thinking in terms of calendar years. IMO all that has happened with the dao, the bail out, eth classic, hard fork after hard fork is much worse than gox : ) Ya sure, not apples to apples, we shall see. Thanks for explaining.