So we can see that the drop happened and the decision was made, this makes everything a bit easier because we at least now have a confirmation on that this is a extended downtrend wave and we can set us up properly for the next price movments.
I'm a happy bear because i always like to collect cheap ETH, and I hope you have the same mindset here. If you don't have this mindset, you should understand that that parabolics (large price suges) always ends like this, ETH is no exception. However, I must admit that I saw a glimmer of hope initially, but I have always remained sceptical of another big run after such movement as ETH had in the recent months. But since we profited of it it's all good, now we profit again off the bears and people who sell in panic, but we plan ahead and execute it without hesitation.
So, this is my set up for ETH the coming weeks, i will be using my other chart to get a bigger overview along with this one. I will update this chart when we hit key price structures.
Next validation will be at the "support & breakout zone" i see a bounce coming there, which will be rejected at the green support line acting as resistance, if that rejection happens we will revisit the support and breakout zone again, if it were to break we should go for a more in depth analysis on how to finalize our position set up.
Good luck
Komen
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Since we exploded out lf this channel i would wait with going long for a bit, gonna update my analysis :)
Dagangan aktif
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I put my money where my month is and entered a long at 561, however we should be cautious here, I put my stop pretty tight , around 540 because there is still a big risk that we will decline further to major support levels.
Couple of questions... What's giving you the validation that we've bottomed out here for the next cycle? You and I have talked about capitulation and psychology a bit. From the sentiment I see around Reddit, Twitter etc, most are now calling for a reversal. So I'm not sure capitulation has happened yet, isn't it when most have given up hope that a reversal occurs?
So, maybe the question is, is the psychology of the market in the right place to reverse, or are we likely to end up in another bull trap if we go long at this point?
moorbles
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@mattgarbutt, Also, there's been no bounce to speak of, when we hit the big dips in Jan/Feb, the price spiked back up quickly. Lately, price has bottomed, chopped and then broken down again. From what I can see, we're in that pattern again today.
ttrold
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@mattgarbutt, obviously I do not know either, but I've seen theories that because people saw that we returned quite strongly in February (and has done it before), those who were scared then and sold everything, are now afraid of sitting this one out, and therefore the bounce won't be so serious as the last time. If you where lucky and bought the dip the last time (like I were), you more than doubled your investment in just a few weeks.
I went long around 561 too, and I've set my stop loss quite conservatively to 549 in case we go back down. Probably a more agressive (and in my experience with crypto, better) strategy would be to set the stop loss below the lowest point ind this correction. Another strategy would be to wait until BTV crosses 10070 successfully, and then consider going long on ETH or whatever ALT. Interestingly ETH and LTC has fared quite well in the last stages of this correction.
Finally I would recommend to visit the TV of ew-forecast, he made a quite likely scenario in my eyes based on Elliot wave theory, that suggested this move a long time a go.
ethhunter
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@ttrold, thumbs up on this one, generally, setting stop loss tight in this market is often bad, you need to akowledge the risk before taking it, then reap the reward... to tight stops could push you out of a profitable position way to early.
@mattgarbutt regarding your question, i never validated the bottom, I merly pointed out that it's just a long term good entry in terms of resistances and supports, (which can break down and fail of course).
But there is a interesting key elements in my latest chart if you pay attention, however how much weight it carries I do not know: see explanation below
Roof/Bottom - Consolidation ahead? (ETH)
The green trendline extending from 29/11 halted the first large correction 6/2 , but it also overlapped with the other long term trendline (purple), at that point in time, both intersected with eachother.
The latest "bottom" also halted at the same trendline (purple), however, we have no confirmation which trendline that actually is the "leader", as the purple has higher angle compared to the green, we could ultimately test the green trendline below it before we get any validation what so ever (if any, if this was bottom). Then ofcourse, we have 400, which is a damn tough nut to crack, which im not even going to talk about, but if we get there i declare crypto in a long term bear market that ain't gonna recover for some time :)
moorbles
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@ethhunter, Right, it's all an educated guessing game eh? We just try to make the best decisions we can based on partial information, a bit of a poker game.
I'll take a look at your latest chart now.
And btw, I think you know, but I wasn't trying to start any sort of argument, was just interested in your more detailed view. I enjoy our chats on here and your insight.
So, maybe the question is, is the psychology of the market in the right place to reverse, or are we likely to end up in another bull trap if we go long at this point?