ETHUSD Update: The 286 support has been compromised along with a lower low. If this bearish momentum continues, the 258 to 232 support zone is where I am watching for price to retest next.
In my previous report, I updated that I exited half of my position in the 290 area for a loss and mentioned that I will hold the other half with the 283 stop which obviously stopped out. Losses are part of the game, and occasionally a string of losses can happen. So I am now flat, and intend to stay that way until this market provides clearer signs of stability and a possible reversal. The best lessons you can learn are from your losses. And in my case, I was being too aggressive by not waiting for confirmation on the larger time frames. Also remember, my position was a fraction of my normal size, even when I bought into the second portion, it totaled on 60% of my usual size. Not only that but I reduced my risk even further with my early exit as well.
The 258 to 232 level is the .618 of the recent bullish structure and I have been writing about it for some time. It is a wide zone, just like the wide resistance that this market is selling off from, which means it can consolidate within the boundaries of the zone before showing any significant signs of change.
An interesting level to note within the zone is the 249 area. The reason is it is a 1.0 extension measured from the high of this bearish swing. Often these extensions offer good points of reference for momentum to become exhausted and price to reverse. (See BTC chart, 6220 was a similar bullish extension and we see where price is now). So I will be watching the lower 250s closely to see if price can build any meaningful structures that imply strength coming back into this market.
Another level to watch for is the 304 resistance which is now the .382 of the current bearish swing. As long as price stays below this, this market is more likely to see lower prices or stay in a range. Keep in mind, this level will keep adjusting lower as price makes lower lows. Eventually this trend resistance will be taken out which will offer a form of longer term confirmation that the momentum has changed back to bullish (that would also be a good time to stop shorting for those who are short).
Also the relationship with BTC seems to be this: BTC goes up big, this market sells, BTC sells off, this market sells off harder. Like I wrote about before, the relationship is changing rapidly because there are so many variables affecting the order flow of these markets. For that reason, I try to focus more on the information that the chart provides, especially for short term price action.
In summary, now that the 286 support is clearly taken out, I will stay flat until this market can stabilize and offer new swing trade long opportunities. There may be some more fake outs along the way, but I am not going to take any price spikes seriously until they can evolve into bullish structures on the time frames larger than this one as well. And that will certainly take some time. If the market can work its way into the 250s, I would be most interested to see what happens in that area. I have been in markets long enough to know that opportunities are just a matter of waiting for the criteria that matches your plan. So it's back to waiting for me.
I made a good decisions based on your article but tightend the screws a bit as i was seeing weakness in the market yesterday with slow bleed and averaged down on my previous buys and made a new profitable trade.
Bought some new at 294...Sold at 304
Put a Stop loss for my previous investment at whopping 381 now at 284.99 ( first time i did this as i have been reading and practicing ) and bought back at 277.
Thanks to you and @goldbug1
@goldbug1, Did you ride this wave? Money flowing back to Altcoins looks like
goldbug1
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@raghavgrover013, No, I have been like MarcP said, just sitting quietly on the sidelines waiting for calmer waters. However I did add to my long term ETH position on the dip, but I have done that with most of my core long term holdings. I just think trading right now is risky.
bloodecho0
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Marc,
Your honesty and transparency show me that you are not only secure about your technical abilities, but also experienced with good and bad times.
agouray
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thank you
Mydral
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304 resistance clearly taken out with lower high formed at 303.35 before going up higher again.
Would you wait for pullback to 295 level and buy on bounce?
My last two trades were in at 265 (when it did a pull back there previously) and at 291 when your stop loss hit.. wont be selling now I think as it doesn't look bearish.
Still thinking it will reach 380 level again hence holding, but will watch 340-350 range more closely than I did last time
raghavgrover013
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Look what happened... from 280 to 309... once BTG fork completed. I rode that wave on new buys at 281.
Ratio blew out of my triangle.