ETHUSD Update: Price retraces back to 294 while BTC continues to push highs. The fact that this market could not push the 315 high is concerning and I do not plan to add to my long position.
I am still long from 298.84 with my stop now adjusted to 286. At this point, in order f or me add to my position, price needs to show proof of strength. The 315 level is a tough range resistance and also a lower high formation which is not what I want to see when I am long. A break below 288 will confirm the 315 double top and a good level for me to be out of this trade. I think I gave it plenty of time to prove itself.
The 297 to 294 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing) is holding price up at the moment, and in a more bullish environment, this would be a good place to go long or add upon a reversal signal. Since price is coming from a double top, I suspect this support is more likely to break. Keep in mind this market is consolidating and during these conditions, price can do more random things as compared to when price is trending. By adjusting my stop higher, I am lowering my risk on my small position while still giving the market some room to reverse back in my favor.
If I get completely stopped out at 286, I will not consider getting back in until this market starts moving big one way or the other. That means a bullish or bearish break of this consolidation will get my attention ONLY. From there I will reevaluate the potential for any swing trade longs. If the mid 280s is taken out, then the key level to watch is 270. If that breaks then the 250s become a strong possibility again (I wrote about this level in previous ETH reports).
Keep in mind I only trade these markets from one side and that is the long side. I understand many of the newer traders who seek action and adventure get anxious when I do not have any trades to talk about. If you are looking for broader movements in markets where reward/risk is decent and you are not trading anything else, consider the forex markets. There is a ton of activity there.
In summary, the price action in this market is not favorable for buying more at the current levels in my opinion (this may change if 310 is taken out). Not only is this market in a small range between the 273 low and the 310 area high, but it is right in the middle of a huge range (355 high and 136 low). In situations like this, swing trading is not the best strategy because of the overall lack of follow through like this market has been showing over and over. So it's either day trade, take small profits or position trade which is buy and hold small portions with very wide stops to avoid getting stopped out in the noise. In order for the market to be in play (meaning it is making progress in either direction and not gyrating) this range needs to be taken out. This is all about adjusting and being flexible. For those who are new to these markets, BTC was quiet for 2 years before it started making some real progress. I believe in the long term the break out will be to the upside, but until it starts showing more bullish signs, I am just going to sit tight and observe.
Let`s see what happens when the Devcon3 news starts coming.
It might be just the little impulse we need to get this one moving again.
noobs
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Hi @MarcPMarkets Thank you for the great info.
Are you still long on ETHUSD? Any thoughts on the recent pump to 340?
MoonPickle
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@MarcPMarkets thanks for the analysis, bots have been all over alt coins including ETH and LTC (observe the orders). they are keeping the prices down - hence, the odd market behavior. in my view, ETH is not underperforming because of this. When the bots are gone ETH, along with the other alt coins, will sky rocket. For now, it would probably make sense to keep adding to long positions in anticipation for the sharp move up
MarcPMarkets
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@MoonPickle, well its happening in LTC. Interesting perspective, but how do you know that the order activity is coming from bots from observing the order flow?
It might be just the little impulse we need to get this one moving again.