ETHUSD Update: The dramatic retrace off of 136 is not a healthy buying signal. This 4 hour chart provides an idea of where new minor support and resistance is based on this recent price action.
When I write "healthy" buying, I am referring to the kind of buying that leads to a bullish trend. Since the 160 low was taken out, the major trend is more neutral than bullish at the moment and short term momentum is still bearish (lower highs / lower lows). On that note, the recent retrace off of 136 appears to be a possible "lower high". Do not be fooled into thinking the rally has returned by narrowing your focus to small time frames.
The 241 resistance needs to be broken to the upside to prove that the major bullish trend is in play. Until that point, there is a minor resistance range that comes from the .618 of the previous bear swing which presents a resistance zone from 190 to 205. If bearish momentum is going to persist on the near term, this area is a good place for price to reverse lower. It is possible that price can retest the 136 low from here, or make a higher low and begin a bottoming process. Either way, this area is not a good area for new buying in my opinion.
If price retraces lower from this zone, the first minor support is 171 which is the .382 of the most recent swing up. This needs to hold in order for the buying to bring this market beyond the 205 resistance zone. If price falls below 171, the next area to look for the market to hold is the 160 to 150 area. This is the .618 of the recent upswing. These support areas serve as a reference point to look for a broader bullish reversal formation such as a double bottom or higher low.
Since we are still within the UASF hype period, the dramatic uncertainty can take this price lower very quickly. This is why I am staying out of this market until that event occurs. The current level offers possible day trading or swing trading opportunities, especially for quick shorts with the minor supports used for target references.
In summary, the dramatic retrace looks and feels great for the bulls, but pay close attention to what happens from here. From a broader perspective it appears to be a normal retrace within a bearish formation (lower high often leads to a lower low). For the major bullish trend to reestablish itself, 240 is the key resistance that needs to my compromised in my opinion. You don't have to get in at the bottom to have a good trade, let everyone else figure all that out and take all the risk. When the real buying appears, there will be plenty of opportunities to get back in with much better risk/reward profiles.
Hello, Doesnt this look like a double top now with points at 240.1 and 237?
view_trade
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@MarcPMarkets Has your perspective changed since today's price action? Thank you in advance!
MarcPMarkets
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@view_trade, yes I just wrote a new evaluation. 241 break is very bullish, so now I can look to buy retracements again, especially with the UASF out of the way.
qedbeech
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What great run that was. I am trying to be disciplined and stick to my system and not have FOMO.
People are definitely buying large bulks of ETH - especially with Bitcoin's BIP91 being more likely and EEA announcing more members (Mastercard + Cisco). Wonder where this will take us in the future.
Looking forward to your updates!
qedbeech
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Always great insight. Thank you again
monaxan1992
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hello if crush 195-206 , then we as I understand go up ?
MarcPMarkets
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@monaxan1992, No. If price breaks 206, that is certainly a sign of strength, but it is limited in my opinion. In order to prove that prolonged buying is present, and that we have a chance to move toward 300 or higher, 241 must be taken out.
monaxan1992
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@MarcPMarkets, But at the moment we need to overcome the barrier in 190-205? To at least 250 to reach?
MarcPMarkets
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@monaxan1992, Yes, which the market has done very quickly. This is great price action, but not for the longer term position that I want to put on. This kind of price action is likely to lead to a higher low on the next bearish retracement on this time frame. I will be reporting on that in my next update. I think this market will put in a lower high before it attempts to push back up to the 241 resistance.