ETHUSD update: This market has been relatively weak compared to the other major coins but that does not mean it has lost its long term merit. In fact, these are great prices for getting into a top coin that can be used especially for investing into much higher potential alts which are very cheap at the moment.
In this market, price has fallen through all major supports, broken below all the reversal zones, and is still restrained by a well defined bearish trend line. Momentum is still bearish and even though price action is attempting to recover along with the rest of the coins in this space, it will require some patience to work with. The 374 support level is one that goes back to the previous year that happens to be an old resistance / new support area and buyers have proven to be present there. The problem is since momentum is still generally bearish, this may just be another pause before testing lower prices. There is no way to know for sure.
Even in the face of such bearish momentum, I think this market offers a great opportunity to accumulate a top token that can be used to invest into other much higher potential alts. Which ones? You will have to visit S.C. to read about the ones that we like, but the question is when do you buy this coin? Just like in anything else, there is an aggressive way and a conservative way.
The aggressive way is more attractive IF you are flat. People that are just getting into the game now and missed out on all the pain have a chance to buy at extreme whole sale prices. Sure prices can go lower, but I think the bigger picture reward/risk is now biased to the bullish side. Even if you are in and holding from much higher prices, it will depend on your comfort level since you are taking pain already. Buying at these lows goes beyond technical analysis and is based more on the long term view of these markets in general. In my opinion, the lower this market goes, the more of an opportunity to accumulate and build a nice inventory.
The conservative way is to forfeit these low prices and look to buy after the bearish trend lines get taken out.The first trend line is around the 420 area. That scenario would signal that the bearish momentum is running out of steam. The second sign you can wait for is a close above 451 (.382 of recent bearish swing). The benefit you gain from waiting for these less attractive prices is that momentum is more likely on your side. Less pain, more gain. This is a better way to go if you have been sitting on a position and would like to wait for more favorable conditions to cost average further.
In summary, on a short term technical basis, this market does not look as stable as the others, but if you are looking to use this coin as a means to invest into others, then your timing does not have to be perfect. The best thing you can do is define your goals for this type of investment which will help shape your strategy as these markets eventually stabilize and make their way back. The least effective thing you can do is react to dramatic price action, or worse over exaggerated news which has no bearing on where these markets are going in the future. Success in these markets sums up to your appetite for risk. If you are afraid to lose, you open yourself up to a greater possibility of losing. If you can afford to lose and accept it, you open yourself up to a greater possibility of winning. In other words, scared money never wins.
Hello
I think "extreme whole sale price" is a little out of perspective. Everything is relative in life, and yes coming from 1400 USD, 390 USD looks like a bargain. But so did 600, 500 and 400 USD.
Let's look at the big picture: A year ago, ETH was trading at 48 USD. 14 months ago it was trading at 12 USD, actually it was trading at 12 USD for months during 2016. From this perspective I wouldn't call 390 USD extremely cheap, it is 700% up YoY, and some 3000% up within 14 months. This is by all means crazy.
Some Alts? XVG has lost some 80% from top, however it was trading 9 months ago at around 0.0022, today at 0.045. Plus 1'800%.
XRP has lost over 80%, well most of the Alts did anyway, but is still trading up over 200% from last year.
Now what has fundamentally changed within one year, other than a massive inflow of private money, to justify increases of 200%, 500%, 2000%? I don't know, on the contrary, we have seen speculations and shady ICO's all over the place, not to mention shady Exchanges, shady pump and dump schemes and so on.
ETH is particularly suffering because nearly every ICO was done with ETH, so not only do we have every second Joe having 3 rigs in the basement, but we have a ton of ETH in the hands of ICO's, which are now desperately trying to get USD and EUR to ensure financing their operations. Because all of them are probably pretty unhappy sitting on a pile of ETH, decreasing every week by 10%. Of course they are also sitting on a pile of their own coins, which are decreasing twice as quick as ETH.
So I don't know if the market is going down or up or sideways, but I can really not think of any reason right now to see a bull run. This market is largely based on News and speculation, well I simply can't imagine any news coming out taking ETH to 1000 next months. But I can think of a hell of a lot of possible news sending ETH down to 200 next months.
I remain very sceptical right now and would rather stay at the sideline and miss the first 20% of a bull run than investing right now.
EtherSwinger
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@marco8484, 2000% agree. It's all relative. Maybe we'll get a better wholesale price at 250
TankGod4Science
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"You will have to visit S.C. to read about the ones that we like" What is the S.C. you speak of? Thank you for the analysis.
@moo111, I don't understand why Marc keeps talking about that website. It literally only has 5 articles on it and none of them are about altcoins. All links to "view recent posts" go to a 404 page. I've visited this site several times and never found anything related to Marc's comments.
tammy007
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ETH is surely going below 200...why to accumulate now when ETH's fate is already sealed!
CryptoColiseum
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@tammy007, how could it be sealed? $200 is a possibility and so is under $100... If anything was sealed this game would not be called speculation.
I think "extreme whole sale price" is a little out of perspective. Everything is relative in life, and yes coming from 1400 USD, 390 USD looks like a bargain. But so did 600, 500 and 400 USD.
Let's look at the big picture: A year ago, ETH was trading at 48 USD. 14 months ago it was trading at 12 USD, actually it was trading at 12 USD for months during 2016. From this perspective I wouldn't call 390 USD extremely cheap, it is 700% up YoY, and some 3000% up within 14 months. This is by all means crazy.
Some Alts? XVG has lost some 80% from top, however it was trading 9 months ago at around 0.0022, today at 0.045. Plus 1'800%.
XRP has lost over 80%, well most of the Alts did anyway, but is still trading up over 200% from last year.
Now what has fundamentally changed within one year, other than a massive inflow of private money, to justify increases of 200%, 500%, 2000%? I don't know, on the contrary, we have seen speculations and shady ICO's all over the place, not to mention shady Exchanges, shady pump and dump schemes and so on.
ETH is particularly suffering because nearly every ICO was done with ETH, so not only do we have every second Joe having 3 rigs in the basement, but we have a ton of ETH in the hands of ICO's, which are now desperately trying to get USD and EUR to ensure financing their operations. Because all of them are probably pretty unhappy sitting on a pile of ETH, decreasing every week by 10%. Of course they are also sitting on a pile of their own coins, which are decreasing twice as quick as ETH.
So I don't know if the market is going down or up or sideways, but I can really not think of any reason right now to see a bull run. This market is largely based on News and speculation, well I simply can't imagine any news coming out taking ETH to 1000 next months. But I can think of a hell of a lot of possible news sending ETH down to 200 next months.
I remain very sceptical right now and would rather stay at the sideline and miss the first 20% of a bull run than investing right now.