I wanted to start a new thread because we have a lot going on with ETH right now in these charts.
This post is going to look at potential scenarios of when ETH is going to get more of a SUBSTANTIAL run up. Or when the BOTTOM of ETH could appear, maybe soon?
Let's first start with some technicals. Weekly MACD is still moving down heavily and weekly RSI is still not in oversold territory. The Daily MACD is still drifting down and RSI still has not reached oversold territory yet. the concern here is that because we are in a down trend that we will continue past this bottom in a simple ABCD pattern. Until we break this orange trendline, this is a possible scenario. I will address 3 key questions here with various charts.
Q: Sherem, What are you looking for to see if this is the bottom? A. For this to be a bottom we need to invalidate that large ORANGE trendline that I have on my chart here. Let's look back in April when we had that large rally where a couple things occurred: 1. That down trendline was invalidated by a long sideways movement which had a move up and then found support again. 2. RSI went into oversold territory and we are not there yet. 3. MACD had a nice cross and we rallied hard.
Right now we are not there yet. If we break that orange trendline, I want to see a test of $500 and a pullback for an entry point for a move to the upside.
Komen
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Q: Sherem, What do you think it could do on a shorter time frame?
A. This chart is zoomed in with that orange trend line. It's critical that we break it and create a "higher high" which still hasn't happened yet, even with this large push. We have created a series of lower lows in the last month. This usually indicates that we continue to get a move lower. For me to feel comfortable entering a trade I want to see some sort of push higher or pattern that indicates we will move higher.
We did have some ladders down here that have been adjusted periodically. If you got filled you should be in a good position and be able to book some profits or put a stop loss on your position to protect your profits.
Komen
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Q: Sherem, why do you think it could go down even lower? Shouldn't this be the bottom?
A. The best comparison I have is when ETH hit it's double bottom back in March at 600. A lot of people thought this was the low, but it blew through it and went down to 400. We can look to ETH/BTC for the answer to this. ETH/BTC had just broken the upwards trendline and started to move down. We were already in a strong downtrend and ETH/BTC further ratified the move down. What happened next on ETH/BTC is that we then created a "higher low" and broke this trendline. If this continues on pace, it's going to be a slower move to the downside. We have a couple places we could base out and while I think .04 will be more likely, we will have to see how it plays out.
Komen
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I hope that helps everyone with my overarching perspective. Let me know if it helps with that like button.
Cheers
Komen
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We're touching this orange trendline, we'll go long after some consolidation or if we get a minor pull back to 450 and that area holds.
Dagangan aktif
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it's broken the trendline on the 4 hour, not quite the daily yet, but this is really starting to form up and look like it's going to move higher. We'll target this first resistance zone and look for patterns that invalidate this move.
Komen
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Looks to be following my retrace arrows pretty closely. Sideways movement invalidates the orange trendline further. I imagine a push up is just a matter of time at this point as long as these recent lows hold.
Komen
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A great move up right now! Once we crack this 485 area we should move a lot higher!
Komen
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Watch this $450 area. We have either broken this down trendline or we are sitting on this 455 support and alternate trendline. It will be interesting to see what we do here.
Komen
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Stop hit, it's invalidated all the upward trend lines at this point. Unfortunate.
Excellent insight......you have been nailing these calls lately....
theredbaronZ
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Thanks Sherem. Good analysis.
theredbaronZ
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ETH is not following BTC at all the last few days. A new post analyzing this behavior would be very welcome. Price is near the 440 support but things are weird now and I'm wondering if the old support levels are still valid and where a good spot for a new long would be.
Thanks.
Sherem
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@theredbaronZ, Yeah, i will post a new one or update this one. I think my downward target on this is still potentially valid if this BTC starts coming down. I think we will have minor support at 380 for a bounce, and a lot just above 300.
d0ublethink
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What levels are you thinking for stops on the this current trade?
Sherem
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@d0ublethink, We should find support at this 440-450 area for a sustained move up from here, right at the blue support line i drew, I would put it just below that area.
it looks like it's retracing and following the 2nd set of arrows I drew. This area is really critical to hold.
bennyb3bil
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The Coinbase Custody announcement might have some positive mid-term effects.
Peymana71
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If BTC let ETH,I think Moon.
theredbaronZ
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Perhaps you could explain how ETH/BTC gives a clue about ETH/USD action. After all if BTC/USD goes up or down 100% in 1 minute and ETH does the same, ETH/BTC will stay the same.
Is there some assumption that ETH will lead or lag BTC or always be more volatile than BTC? (this assumption makes some sense based on market cap and BTC being psychologically "safer" for some traders)
Sherem
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@theredbaronZ, You are right, ETH/BTC will stay the same if something like that happens. What we can infer from the ETH/BTC analysis is that if BTC and ETH continue on their current downward trend, that ETH will probably go down quicker than BTC with pressure from USD selling and ETH selling and break these lows at 400, similar to what it did when it broke 600 last time it was hitting a double bottom.