ETHUSD update: 1382 all time high reached which was just 3 points shy of the target projection which completes 5 large magnitude waves. The possibility of a broader correction is now increased.
In my previous report, I wrote about the possibility of a subwave Wave 4 correction before the bullish Wave 5 which is now in place. That scenario has played out and price has rejected the 2.618 target projection at 1385 which is a sign that all 5 larger magnitude waves are complete. Based on this structure, it is now reasonable to expect a broader correction.
Keep in mind, I am not writing this based on feelings, or irrelevant opinions. It is based on the probabilities inherent within the market structure that is in place at the moment. How is this helpful? For one, I would not be looking to establish new longs at these levels because of the increased risk of retrace.
How about shorts? The reward/risk is in favor of shorts BUT there is NO immediate reversal structure at the moment. Larger magnitude turning points are often a process and require time to unfold. One bearish bar is not enough to get short in my opinion. What would be a better scenario to justify a short position? A double top or lower high. That is when momentum aligns with the attractive reward/risk.
Like I have written about before decisions are better when they are evidence based. And right now there is no evidence of a momentum reversal (a peak and a bearish inside bar is a good start, but not enough to justify risk). This is one of those areas where being flat makes the most sense for MY trading plan at the moment.
Now keep in mind, when I write about a broader correction, reasonable levels to anticipate are the 872 to 738 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. That is where I would look to put on a swing trade long if the price action can prove itself in that area. This type of correction can take days to unfold so a ton of patience is required. The reason why I am not that interested in the 1069 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) is because it is too shallow relative to the magnitude of correction that I am anticipating.
In summary, the current situation in this market is very conflicting. On one side you have structure that signals a broader correction is more likely to unfold in the near future, while there are no reversal patterns in place (a single bar is not enough). In my opinion, until this market shows more clarity, it is easier to just stay flat. That is what my plan calls for. If your plan is more aggressive, that is fine, BUT you MUST take responsibility for your actions, because if you are going to blame others for your lack of experience, then you should NOT trade any market. My trading plan helps me not only to sort out the lower risk opportunities, but it also helps to filter out many would be losing trades. It has a cost though, and that is missing out on some good moves as well. I am okay with that because I know that generating profit and then losing it is more costly than missing out because its not just money you are losing, it is also confidence which you cannot put a value on. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not.
Mark, normally I agree with you. But in this case I think you are way off. Look at the corresponding eth/btc pair. I see a pullback to 1K-1.2k, probably 1.1k. ETH is about to go on a major 3-6 month bull run IMO. Very conservative target is $1500. Bullish targets $2700, 3k, 4500, 5k, $7-8k.
@GreaterNinja, 1115 & 950 based on the cloud? How do you determine 727?
GoteGuru
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@GreaterNinja, Major BTC pullbacks systematically pulled down ETH price in the past. It might be otherwise this time, but last time the "flippening" didn't go very well. I agree with Marc, stay flat, see what happens.
GreaterNinja
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@GoteGuru, Disagree. Last time during the "flippening", the Market capital of ETH was within 7B of BTC. In either case, that is irrelevant. Also Marc is saying a wave 5, when this is more like a wave 3 if you guys even want to consider waves. It is best to watch both eth/btc and eth/usd pairs. Daily ETH/BTC says dip, but we are about to have a 50-200 exponential bullish cross. ATH of .154btc per eth right now implies $2,143 per ether. Harmonics and pitchforks say we will likely test eth/btc ath and push higher.