We are not so sure of this (...for traders is always better to have doubts than certainties ...). The central point is not "if" ... but "how" ... We believe that we may see a "false movement" during the announcement (for example, just as happened during the release of the NFP ...) ... this is typical for eurusd!
The fair value of the ECB is 1.10 / 1.15, if at this moment eurusd has a value lower than this range, it is very possible that an increase by 0.25 bp is already "embedded" in the current values.
Probably you're right, but this is our hypothesis at the moment ... Thanks for your comment Lars!