EUR/USD: high possibility of hanging of the trend

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Current trend

After the good growth in April and May the EUR against the USD reversed into the consolidation stage. During the last three trading weeks the pair is trading in the sideways trend within the channel of 1.1155-1.1280.

At the moment the pair consolidates near the lower border of the upward channel, and in case of the publication of the strong USA data or the interest rate rise and the continuation of the cutting of the USA FRS economy stimulation program the border can be broken. In addition, the strong EU Industrial production data, published today, didn’t support the pair.

Today in the second half of the day and in the end of the current trading week the list of the key US releases will be published: the FRS interest rate decision, key indices data and the Business Inventories issue. Tomorrow the France inflation data will be published, and the USA will publish the industrial production and employment market releases. As the traders are waiting for the data to be published, the demand on the USD grows, and the USD is strengthening.

Support and resistance

In the middle term the investors will transfer their assets into the USD, and if the FRS will state the terms of the interest rate rise, the USD will grow significantly. The breaking of the upward trend and the further movement of the price to the key support levels of 1.0950, 1.1000 is possible. The EUR is additionally pressed by the complex political situation in the Eurozone countries. Technical indicators are changing. The MACD reflects the further growth not as strongly as before, the long positions volumes are rapidly lowering, and the signal line is pointed downwards. The alternative scenario is the further growth within the current channel to its upper border at the level of 1.1470 and the long term downward correction.

Support levels: 1.1155, 1.1125, 1.1050, 1.1020, 1.0950, 1.0820, 1.0710, 1.0570.

Resistance levels: 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1350, 1.1370, 1.1470, 1.1530, 1.1600.

Trading scenario

It’s better to open short pending orders at the level of 1.1140 with the target at 1.0950, 1.0820 and stop loss at 1.1250.
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