News on Italian elections were (for the time being) not shocking/suprise. So no crisis there. Germany now has a stable government and no surprises there either. Greece is no longer threat to anyone except their own pensioners.
USA's tariff plan is backfiring (China, EU reacting bad), although I believe they (USA) will not back out and will eventually go through it, as it will create a softer/cheaper USD, subsequently decreasing imports and increasing exports, and (probably) increasing employment rates. I believe that president Trump and his cabinet are actively working towards this. I believe that all this rhetoric for now is to size the reactions - the calm before the storm. USA will continue (of course) to be a mega-power, and USD will continue being valued greatly (even it the rate is significantly changed).
With the above in mind (meaning - no more surprises in the horizon), and taking into account the 2 channels (#1 yellow W1, #2 aqua D1), and with a resistance level on that channel hasn't been broken since 2008 and after 5 attempts (I inlcude the Nov2009 even though it didin't touch the 'sky'), I believe that both the chart analysis and the quick-and-dirty news interpretation point to USD weakening and EUR become a bit stronger, causing the slow-and-fuzzy short that may last 3 months and may give a 0.95 TP (in a short like this I won't bother with the remaining decimals).
Komen
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And right because of newbieness and (mostly) fatigue I charted short and described long. No excuse. This is bad - and I need to rethink my SL on my short :)
I still believe that both outcomes (long/short) are possible due to the circumstances chart & news (and I was just reading about Payl Ryan also pleading for dropping the tariffs' discussion).
Seeing my chart again, the only visible mistake is my "update" (yes I was tired).
Tariffs are happening (BB wrote March 23rd). Biggest imports are (equally) from Canada and EU. Canada got exempted. EU did not. As a retaliation EU will impose tariffs in some US products. I don't think Europeans will appreciate buying those US products 25% more expensive just because 'MAGA' and the silly "security impact" on the 3% of the steel.
Imagine the party if EU expand tariffs to electronics/smartphone - oh the 'joy' seeing Apple lose 200mil 'rich' customers in one day!!
EUR is coming on top regarding Brexit, so no surprises there.
USA goes 'MAGA' with full speed. China/Japan and others won't sit back to see their exports being dumped on and they will give their 'nectar' to USD. I think USD will be in a bit worse than it is now.
Duration is mainly because I don't want to day-trade, I prefer to see the big picture, and I've noticed it plays out in the end. There may be some socks and pullbacks, but Big Money does its thing, and Big Money doesn't swerve from target unless we got for WW3 which I sincerely hope we don't.
I do understand that 'patriotic' long term positions on USD may push a bit harder to protect USD, but profit is profit and I see them buying gold instead of buying USD (for now).
bellamy612
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@ForeverNewbie, thank you so much! Will EUR/USD go to 1,15xx within the next few weeks? My english is bad, sorry...
I think Trump will makes the Dollar stronger with all his desicions and the Euro weaker. Best regards bellamy
bellamy612
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@bellamy612, Dollar stronger and Euro weaker. Will Eur/usd fall to 1,15xx within the next few weeks? Thanks
@bellamy612, Channels, meaning on my chart above the Channel #1 (yellow) and Channel #2 (aqua) will contain the price within them. And since Channel #2 (aqua) has about to end, price will drop down to 1.0x.
bellamy612
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@ForeverNewbie, many thanks for your explanations! Let`s hope, EUR/USD will fall within the next weeks to 1,15xx! Have a nice weekend!
Best regards
bellamy612
are you insider? Your target within 3 months is very ambitious ;) Please answer...