My last EURUSD chart suggesting long entry was about 4 months ago, which took longer and retraced more than originally anticipated. Whilst we were waiting for longer term bullish move, we took 2 short trades which were also published subsequently, see chart links below.
Now we have long awaited low formed in December 2015 just above March 2015 low, which could prove to be higher low of the bullish cycle
Looking at the price actions since March low to recent December 2015 low it appears very interesting as follow:
1. From March Low to August high we note a clear 3 swings zigzag move shown in GREEN. 2. Similarly, from August high to December low also appear to have a 3 swings to the downside show in GREEN. 4. The final part of the swing down to Dec low was clear falling wedge with accompanied momentum divergence on H4. 3. The December low formed at just below 88.6% retracement of the move up from March to August.
The above observations, if correct, suggests that we have a potential Flat correction which according to Elliott Wave principle is formed by 3-3-5 (a-b-c) formation where wave B needs to retrace around 90% of prior wave A and both waves A & B should have 3 swings each, hence meeting the criteria.
If the interpretation is correct, then what should develop now is a 5 wave impulsive move to the upside, which could at least retest August high or even make new higher high.
Of the 5 wave it appears we have already completed leading diagonal wave 1 and retracement zigzag wave 2, and could be in very early stage of wave 3 in progress which should be quite strong.
Summary: Therefore, we could consider 2 possible entries 1. The ideal one is that we can get pullback to enter around 1.08 or better and is a preferred entry. 2. If it don't get a pull back to 1.08 level then use a smaller time frame to confirm entry or wait till we have a breakout above 1.1.
In both cases the initial stops could be just below 1.07 which is invalidation level, however, it might need to be reviewed as bullish trade could still materialise provided we hold above December low.
We might stay in this range for few days but seasonality also supports EURUSD gaining noticeably commencing from late Jan to early Feb
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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any reason why euro would lift up(beside "magical" 1.08)?
jhakas
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Pin Bar Bullish Candle of friday... as you can see eu still jumping... it is because of that candle..
jhakas
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low of that daily candle remains which is 1.08... bulls will remain hopeful for another jump for 1.10 and any break of 1.08 will drag euro towards 1.055
Csys
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Nice pitchforks. Here's what I got:
DanV
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Thank you for sharing your chart. I did check that some while back but feel it is not reacting well with the price action. So I took it off. Also tries various other pivots but did not get good results. That is not to say it is not relevant. Remains to be seen how it plays out. Thanks once again.
Csys
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Yes, it's hard to find the one in the weekly Fiber because the price action is fuzzy and rebel. The reason I picked up this one as my primary choice is that although the parallels don't really describe the market, the ML stands powerful.
DanV
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Yes I agree.
KayJay
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I guess it can go lower to 1.080 or 1.077 level before resuming uptrend... as if you can see day before yesterday candle or bar it shows how quickly it bounced of that level :)
KayJay
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I think we are in a 2 wave of a higher 3 wave impulse