In my previous analysis I was looking for uptrend continuation after price confirmed a weekly uptrend using time at mode. This pair had been coiling very tightly until it broke up initially, but the follow through has shown the power of the bears. After Mario Draghi's speech, evidently we had a lapsus of complete agreement between market participants, a paradigm shift of massive scale, which led to a relentless selloff under all support levels. There simply were no buy orders to even execute stop losses for some time.
Many people are seeing patterns, wave analysis, fibonacci support, Gann lines, and all sort of technical tools that tell them to buy the Euro down here. In my case, I don't subscribe to any of these, but with my own tools I can define a series of targets, which posess a relatively moderate probability of attainment, and also of reversal or retracement once hit. Time at mode works specially well after extended consolidations, with lower and lower volatility, which is what we had in the weekly chart here, so I'd grade these lower targets with a considerable probability of being achieved during this year.
I will be hosting a free webinar this week, to introduce traders to the techniques that I am using, which are the fruiton of Tim West's mentoring, as well as my own experience with them in the Forex space, which has its own characteristics and challenges. One of them being the reduced liquidity of certain crosses, and the problems this creates when using more standard 'diagonal type' thinking, like wave analysis. I will discuss how market types affect systems' performance, and what the 'Holy Grail' of trading Forex really is. It will surprise many to know the answer to this. Stay tuned for more details on how to join it.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom. All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers. Contact me via skype or pm for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Komen
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Keep your mind open to different scenarios, based on conditionals:
I connect the highest lows and lowest highs to form trendlines and channels...gives good extra information to contrast to the profile data. We might see one more push down before any significant retrace, it's starting to look like 3 waves down from the recent peak before the selloff. Usually, impulses end structures...what is this ending then? or is it the beginning of a new structure?
Might not be sharp enough to warrant a new structure, and equities look frail, so I'm inclined to keep my mind open to going long after we get confirmation. In case the short signal fails and we get a massive downtrend failure ;)
I'm setting up everything for the webinar, stay tuned.
Dagangan aktif
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In case the rally isn't short lived, I'm long. I expect the Fed news to drive this trade close to that target. I don't know if the move down is done, but for now, this is the current situation.
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
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I closes at 0.25% loss. I don't like the look.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
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I took a short under today's open, good 2:1 trade.
Komen
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Keep close watch of the Germany data coming out, and the US jobs data as well. Tomorrow will be interesting.
Komen
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Low volume support holding. Here's the link for today's webinar: youtube.com/watch?v=830QXuSWSck I'll cover EURUSD and USDCAD.
I don't consider this an H&S but some people do. Target might be good but need an actionable level to short and place a safe and not too wide stop.
johan.verm
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I'm also doubting but there is no rule for a correct angle of the neckline...
IvanLabrie
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There's no doubt here. I don't use H&S as a signal. I have 6 strategies, that I use, one for each market condition.
H&S isn't one of them, low hit rate and people see them everywhere.
It's most likely moving down and the target is valid, but the entry method using an H&S is dubious to me. I will update with my entry, if possible I'll share it live during the webinar. Either this or USDCHF, both are my main focus this week.
Victor.Y.F
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Thanks, Ivan. This pair could do an expanding triangle. The swing lows will be lower and the swing highs will be higher which will be limited by neck line.
IvanLabrie
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Indeed, in fact, an expanding triangle was my first assumption, regarding the wave count. If that's the case, we will have to tackle the end of each swing to enter. A more reactive style of trading...Most wave counters will have a dozen of guess-counts near the extremes too.
I'm not sure about the count yet, doesn't matter, we can trade without forecasting. Just an it-then-else process.
Cheers!
FullTimeTrader
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Hello, this decline was predictable because price needed a correction before continuing the uptrend. I think it will not last long, right now im staying aside and will be ready to long. Regards.
IvanLabrie
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This sharp selloff? I've seen many counting it as wave 3 of something but it looks like wave 1 of something else.
The thing is, for me the decline since the top is very hard to analyze with neowave. It is a wave 4, which isn't done yet, so it will be very hard to predict overall, specially with wave counts.
I'm going by my time at mode analysis 100% on it.
IvanLabrie
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(Wave 4 of a yearly uptrend, pending 5 up, not the typical wave count that says dollar index was in a 4th wave all this time, in an uptrend)
If this is a H&S ? short to 1,05000 .....