MaryJane
Singkat

New Selling-Signal seems to be within reach

FX:GER30   DAX Indeks Saham Tersenarai German
97 0 13
My former analysis is abundantly valid...new selling signal if market ist traded sutainable below 9600....


former analysis:
CAPTURE THE FLAG


The consolidation is still in full swing!
1. On the one hand we have the danger of the big bearish flag . (red 1-2-3 counting)
Thats my exspected szenario. The consolidation can go further till the maximal correction level (62,8 fibo) @ round about 10650. At the latest the market should turn again bearish at that level, The TP of the bearish flag is @ 8600. It also could be, that we have seen the high today.

2. On the other hand we have a newborn shortterm uptrend (green counting). If the market can pass the resistance level @ 10.360 a new "2?" can be exspected.
When the market will reach this level, nr. 1 is valid again :-)


CORRECTION COMPLETED OR DO WE SEE JUST A DEAD CAT BOUNCE?
,
Since the market crashed to its LOW @ 9325 a very fast Rebound started. The upmove reached till the Region of the 38,2 fibo-retracement - the minimum correction Level @ 10.230. At this Level the market turned red again. This conolidation seems to form a bullish shortterm-flag (blue). But the likelihood that the flag will be triggered is not very high, because the flag is oriented against the main trend. Should the flag be triggered, the target would be 10.680-10.800.

So we have some interesting trading-Levels to watch at the Moment:
On the upside are based several resistance zones :
1. The flags upper edge @ 10.270
2. The midterm consolidation downtrend channels bottom edge, which turned into a resist since the market is trading below 10.350
3. The 0,5 fibo (9.341-11.667) @ 10.500
4. The tear-off edge @ 10.650 - STRONG RESIST! Here i exspect a futher selloff to the former low @ 9350

On the downside we see just a view support-zones:
1. The flags bottom edge @ 9.850
2. The former Low @ 9.340

Several moves are thinkable:
Prices above the flags upper edge ( Prices > 10360) can generate a move to 10.500/10.700/10.800
Prices above10.800 will generate a TP @ the consolidation Trends upper edge @ 11.250
Prices below 9. 850 will generate a TP @ 9.340
Prices below 9.340 will generate a further selloff with TP 8.200


Reboundaction!

he market closed 4 days out of his BB - so the likelihood of a shortterm Rebound has to be exspected.
On the way up are based several resists.
-gap bottom edge @ 9.925
-old trendline @ 10.100
-38,2 fibo-retracement 10.220
-0,5 fibo @ 104.91
-the breakoutlevel from the former low @ 10.650

Should These resists hold, a bearish flag may be formed! This Szenario is thinkibla if the market does not rise above 10.490.

The target of the flag would be 8300!!!
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