IRDM: Make or Break It

Hey everyone,
This is more of a fundamental idea on one of my favourite companies, IRDM, though there is math and analysis involved.


Here are key points that I didn't want to elaborate on in the idea, but just for background info.

Summary of Earnings Transcript from Q1:
Iridium Communications reported solid performance with 6% growth in operational EBITDA and continued service revenue growth across key areas, including IoT, PNT, and engineering. CEO Matt Desch addressed uncertainties stemming from new U.S. tariffs, which could add up to $7 million in annual costs if fully implemented, though Iridium has mitigation strategies in place. Despite global trade volatility and increased competition from entrants like Starlink, Iridium remains confident in its differentiated offerings—particularly its L-band network, global coverage, and mission-critical capabilities. The company highlighted momentum in its next-gen IoT and Direct-to-Device (NTN Direct) services, GPS-alternative PNT solutions (boosted by its Satelles acquisition), and government partnerships. CFO Vince O’Neill confirmed full-year guidance for 5–7% service revenue growth and $490–500 million in operational EBITDA, citing robust free cash flow generation, healthy liquidity, and strong shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Management reiterated long-term confidence in Iridium’s growth strategy through 2030, supported by its technological edge and diverse partner ecosystem.

History of Irdium

• 1987: The concept for Iridium was born at Motorola’s Strategic Electronics Division in Arizona.
  
• 1990: Motorola publicly announced the Iridium project at simultaneous press conferences in New York, Beijing, London, and Melbourne
  
• 1991: Iridium Inc. was incorporated to develop and deploy the satellite network.
  
• 1997: The first Iridium satellites were launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, beginning the build-out of the constellation.
  
• November 1, 1998: Iridium officially launched its commercial satellite communications service. The first call was made by U.S. Vice President Al Gore to Gilbert Grosvenor, great-grandson of Alexander Graham Bell.
  

Iridium has had a slew of hardship, having filed for bankruptcy in 1999 and being revised in 2001.

IRDM's major competitors are Inmarsat, Globalstar (GSAT) to a lesser extend as their network is not as broad, Telesat and Visat.

Starlink is not a direct competitor for Iridium as they server different purposes, but Iridium already faces strong competition with the above mentioned companies, in addition to the evolving companies such as ASTS and RKLB which have the ability to completely derail Irdium if they advance faster than Iridium can keep up.


These are my thoughts, hope you enjoyed!

Safe trades!