Maybe this bull run might be over soon. But right now it´s still "running" ...
The Dow is closing in to 20k. But it´s not only the Dow. Japan and Italy are still close to 20k as well. The trend is our friend. And right now the trend is still "up". Maybe not for longer, but today. And maybe some more days to come. If you look to the numbers: CFD Trader are 76% short the Dow, SPX and the DAX . The crowd is short but the Comp is up. If we like this - or not.
Technical there is some deterioration. But today we see new ATH´s.
Technical there is now some improvement. Break a possible rising wedge to the up side (!).
Technical is now some improvement going on. Break of a rising wedge to the up side. Comp needs a day with larger gains to confirm this pattern. Pattern like this sometimes ends by a "false break" and a sharp sell off. A break to the upside could trigger a powerfull new move to the upside. Two extrem move possible. Keep an eye on it.
NASDAQ Comp: New All Time High 11.01.2017
Technical is now some improvement going on. Break of a rising wedge to the up side. Comp needs a day with larger gains to confirm this pattern. Pattern like this sometimes ends by a "false break" and a sharp sell off. A break to the upside could trigger a powerfull new move to the upside. Two extrem moves are possible. Keep an eye on it.
The Bears tried to get control about the Comp and it would had been easy to trigger more selling. But finally the Comp is again above this upper trendline of a rising wedge what usally will end as an reversal pattern. If ever it won´t be than the next move will be impressive and will go to the up side.
Sellers missed on thursday, January 12th to get controll about the Comp and the NDX. Any further upmove on friday could trigger a buy signal. Once more.
Watch this tremendous chart: The Comp is breaking the upper trendline of a rising wedge to the upside.
Large Specs since September 2016 are not able to time the market. The latest numbers are showing that large specs reducing theire net long positions once more.
What does this mean?
All major US-Indices are close to ATH´s and Hedgefonds are betting for lower stockmarket prices. Any uptick in the SPX cost Millions of US-Dollar. Any suprise might be on the upside still. The downside potential is still limited.
DEFINITION of 'Long-Legged Doji'
A type of candlestick formation where the opening and closing prices are nearly equal despite a lot of price movement throughout the trading day. This candlestick is often used to signal indecision about the future direction of the underlying asset.
Read more: Long-Legged Doji Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long-legged-doji.asp#ixzz4WGFt6oKy
New ATH for the Comp.
Dow Jones Transportation Index: Impressive upmove.
If you follow the Dow Theory: The DJT is going to confirm any DJIA all time high if ever rising only a few points higher.
Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter
Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes
Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)
Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:
Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".
USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".
NASDAQ Composite Index made a new ATH.
Apple's cash hoard swells to record $246.09 billion
After 13 consecutive days of something like a "Trump nightmare" expect stockmarkets to return to daily business focused on earning and global growth. Watch the NASDAQ Comp for another unexpected ATH in the next days lead by APPL, FB & TSLA.
FB today: After hours plus 4 USD or 3%. Expect tomorrow a huge break away gap leading the comp higher. https://invst.ly/36rts
New All Time High
NASDAQ Composite Index: New All Time High
Quote: Dow, Nasdaq hit record highs as rally regains steam
Stock Markets49 minutes ago (Feb 07, 2017 11:30AM ET)
By Yashaswini Swamynathan and Tanya Agrawal
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher in later morning trading on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite hitting record levels and the S&P 500 coming within spitting distance of yet another all-time high.
Markets have rallied sharply after Trump's election victory in November, riding on hopes that his plans including simpler regulations, higher infrastructure spending and tax cuts will boost the economy. However, the lack of details regarding economic policies and Trump's focus on isolationist policies, including a travel ban on seven mainly Muslim nations, have also made investors cautious. With the earnings season at its peak, stock valuations are in focus given the run-up in shares. The S&P 500 is trading at 17.7 times forward 12-month earnings, above the 10-year median of 14.7 times, according to StarMine data. Fourth-quarter earnings are estimated to have risen 8.2 percent - the best in nine quarters.
"We've been getting some back and forth between the new administration's business-friendly policies versus the disruptions economically and politically from the immigration and trade-related issues," said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede in Philadelphia.
"However, at the end of the day, the expansion is continuing, the economy and earnings are growing and that should support equities." Source: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-rise-with-focus-on-earnings-458407
Published: Feb 9, 2017 5:04 p.m. ET
The White House is describing President Donald Trump’s plan to host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his golf resort in Florida as a “gift,” a day ahead of the meeting in Washington between the two leaders. “That is a gift that the president is extending to the prime minister,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters Thursday about the planned weekend visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Abe and Trump are due to have talks at the White House Friday and the two are scheduled to travel together to the Palm Beach resort afterward. Questions have arisen about the ethics of the trip. Experts cited by The Wall Street Journal said the most appropriate option would be for Trump to host Abe at Mar-a-Lago as his guest, if Japanese government ethics rules permit. Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mar-a-lago-visit-a-gift-to-abe-from-trump-white-house-says-2017-02-09
Stock Markets38 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 08:44AM ET)
Quote: Investing.com - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Investing.com - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Quote: https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/the-week-ahead:-5-things-to-watch-on-the-economic-calendar-462194
Quote: Trump to address nation sandbagged by record low approval rating: NBC/WSJ poll
President Donald Trump will address the nation on Tuesday night saddled with the lowest approval ratings of any new chief executive in modern American history, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows. Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/26/trump-to-address-nation-sandbagged-by-record-low-approval-rating-nbcwsj-poll.html
Bought Comp @ 5.487
Sold Comp today @ 5.840
Cutting back exposure to US Markets to focus more on Europe now. Selling the comp doesn´t mean anything about that this up move might have ended now or not. It´s about profit taking only.
.... but financials outperforming DJIA, SPX and COMP (plus 1,14%) with a clear break out (plus 3,3%) anticipating that there is more room to the upside. Same time the DAX is up 2%. Europe might have more gains after all this elections later this year.
Still running: Transport and Fiancials. Both outperforming the Dow.
During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 32.00% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.
Last changed Mar 20 from a Fear rating
Updated Mar 21 at 4:04pm Quote: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
I sold the comp on Feb. 28. I guess todays market action might be overdone so i wil be back on the buyside.
Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.
DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay
Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%253Fr%253DUS%2526IR%253DT