LTCUSD update: Higher low established at the 156 level serves as a sign of strength as this market is setting up to break the bearish trend line that has been in place since February. On top of that, price has been fluctuating within a major support zone for almost two weeks which implies further strength to come.
Patience is key in this slow and uneventful environment. This market is full of false starts and no follow through which means there needs to be a bullish catalyst to spark the follow through required to begin the next broad movement higher. A close above the 165 level would confirm the break of the bearish trend line and could be the beginning of a price structure that can lead back to the low 200's at least.
Keep in mind these markets are all following BTC. This market in particular, looks almost identical to the BTC chart. Both of these markets are fluctuating within major support areas which serve as an important factor when it comes to considering market context. In this market, there is the 161 to 139 major support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure) and overlapping that is the 151 to 145 minor support (.618 area relevant to recent bullish swing). And just above that is the 153 extreme reversal zone boundary that is relevant to the 156 low. Even though the momentum is generally bearish, price is within an area where a bullish reversal and break out is highly likely.
Although price is moving slowly, a bearish catalyst can always come out and scare these markets lower. As long as price stays above the lower bullish trend line (140 area), I will not be concerned with minor fluctuations lower. IF price breaks and closes below the 140 area, then that would open the possibility of a retest of the low 100's. Just something to keep in mind.
In summary, when markets trade in tight narrow ranges and put the herd to sleep, that is the best time to accumulate inventory in my opinion. Position trading is a good strategy in this environment especially because it allows you to build without the wild gyrations. This is what you want to do BEFORE a bullish catalyst causes a major reaction and gets everyone's attention. Once that happens, that is when you should be looking to lock in profits and capitalize on all the traders and investors who don't know any better and react to the hype that follows such moves. Just like in BTC, there are a number of bullish trigger scenarios that can unfold from this point. Do you know which ones? And if a trigger goes off, do you have a plan of action? Are you position trading (building inventory)? Or swing trading? IF a long trigger goes off, I will include that information on the S.C. website only.
Questions and comments welcome (better to PM if you have a pressing question. Since I must focus my attention on S.C.).
Your 320 target post on 3/15, 230 target breakout on Mar 12 and so many others are a big F. Litecoin will follow bitcoin like a little puppy and the death cross is days away. This will be a 2014 repeat. Bears are clearly in charge and bulls are tired of getting burned. Cypto user adoption, market cap and google search interest has dwindled in a huge way. I don't see it leveling out till btc hits the 2 to 3000 range and then it will go sideways for a while until the daily 50ma crosses the 200ma again. Wounds take time to heal.
Jazz-man
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@jazzman4u, The btc 10 and 21 EMA have just crossed the 200 EMA, The daily stock rsi is at 65 and heading down. We are at the top of the trend line and getting rejected therefore giving a higher probability of downward movement.
Tyebit
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None of this matters if BTC decides to take a massive shit. Everything is pegged to BTC whether it looks like it's shaping up for a pump or not.
patcic
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Man, glad I don't trade on your charts. Even with out the bad Litepay news that was released today at 10AM, your predictions seem to be way off. Keep trying though and I like your in depth analysis!
CryptoJC
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Hey Marc, thank you for your analysis, have a like :)
LiteCoin is in pain right now (and it is not just because of Bitcoin...): a few hours ago news broke that LitePay has ceased all its activities and the company will be sold.
For those following the Bitcoin pair, here is my LTC / BTC analysis:
THX