LTCUSD: Following BTC's lead and in the face of minor bearish pressure, this market is showing signs of renewed strength that can lead to a revisit of the 230 area or higher. In this report I will explain why the short term bearish momentum is misleading in this context.
Yesterday BTC presented a situation where it failed to push lows which signaled that these markets are not as weak that they appeared just days before. The momentum that was driving the minor sell off has been absorbed within the broader support zones across the major coins. That sell off did not even come close to making any significant new lows, and instead has established another higher low formation (relative to the most recent bottom which is the 106 area in this case). That means? The bigger picture still has a bullish bias.
In fact, the 161 to 137 minor support zone (.618 area relative to recent bullish swing) has not even been compromised as it overlaps the 186 to 137 major support zone (.618 of broad bullish structure). So even though the short term momentum has been bearish, this market is still maintaining a bullish configuration which offers a very well defined buying opportunity.
I have been managing a position trade in this market for some time and will continue to add to it and lock in profits as these opportunities present themselves. How you position yourself for the next bullish leg all depends on how much risk you are willing to take. Since I have a position trade, I am willing to take much bigger risk. This means if price breaks below the recent swing low (which is now the reference point to define risk for a swing trade long), I will not exit my position. Instead I will wait for the next series of reversal signs and look to buy more.
For short term swing traders, there is a clear set up here with a specific entry point and stop. Can you see it? These specifics will appear on this report on my other site. The initial target for this trade is the 225 area. Keep in mind a break out at this point can take this market much further.
In summary, the bigger picture is where the bigger opportunities are. Less experienced traders make the common mistake of thinking the short time frames will offer better information in the form of "faster" signals or changes. They do not realize that the weight of this information is not equal and that the smaller the time frame, the less reliable it is, especially when trying to capture broader market moves. The smaller picture is still showing bearish momentum, which can be very misleading when it is within the context of broader support zones. It is still possible for price to retest the 161 level or lower, but I will view this as a buying opportunity, especially on any signs of failure like the one we just saw off of the 161 low. Understanding the context of the big picture is what makes this perspective and preparation possible.
Would you like to buy now at 175 and sell at 235? Maybe it goes to 150, 135 then turns and goes to 235, 262, 302. If you buy now, your sell target should be higher, don't sell lower. Just think for a minute, would you buy now at 175 to sell at 135? NOPE. So, it is way way better, to make your plan before you enter a trade, then stick to it. I bought loads of LTC at 136, and never sold. I have many asics mining LTC. I will sell when it reaches my long term target 1k. I bought some more at 145 for day trading, sold going up to 200. Then i bought again at 215 and did not sell at 252. No one is an expert. No one knows what's gonna happen. I'm loaded on LTC. I'm ready to lose all tho'. I will never sell for a lower price then the price i bought. My long term target 1k. Even if it reaches that, i might not sell all. I don't know if it will ever reach that, or if i can hold that long, but that is my plan. Maybe it will reach 1k, i will sell, and then regret because LTC reaches 2.5 k :)! Whoever made millions with BTC, has gone through loads of pain. One day you calculate that you have 100 BTC x 20 k = 2 Mil. Next month you have 100 BTC x 6 k = 600k usd. You just lost 1.6 mil usd. BUT you did not lose any BTC. Maybe one day it will reach 50k or maybe not. Who knows :). Long one...ciao
@MichalNemcok, haha...true. I might have thought 1.4 mil but i was writing 6k, 600k before and my brain had to make a triple 666. Devil brain :)
TomPower
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marc getting worried about that wedge resolving to the downside, hugging lower line now , termination point imminent
caimano
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Open question: is not the problem here related to the fact that is not possible to follow other trades since BTC move with him all the other assets in the market. I mean you can do you TA your analysis find bottoms, but in the end if BTC goes down everything goes down.
I think this is the most unappealing factor in this market for any trader. At least in order market you have opportunity to leave for a while some stocks and trade on other, here is almost impossible.
Maybe this market is not for trading, unless we running a huge bull trend like in 2017 (that's not sustainable as we have seen)
Your thoughts?
starslasher1515
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Normally, I would agree but I think the influence of BTC going down will not let the price of LTC go up..... Again....and again..... This is like the 4th time LTC should be at 260 and it never gets there....
TheCryptAlpha
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No its, not it goes down before we go up ...
dustyPH
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Looks like we are heading down for the moment.
Here is a look at a LTC/BTC chart.
jbutler7
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@dustyPH, This isn't the best chart for LTC price, since BTC manipulates the values on this chart, and should be mainly used for weighing against BTC/trading LTCBTC pairs.
dustyPH
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@jbutler7, yes you are correct. I do mention that in the analysis, however it can be a good indication to see how LTC can preform against BTC and still can show support and resistance levels