LTCUSD Update: Same situation as the BTC market with consolidating price action just under the 55 resistance level (.382 of bearish swing). I am writing about this market to show what I am thinking for longer term positioning.
This market has previously lagged the top coins, and seems to now be following the leader which in my opinion makes it more attractive for long term strategies compared to swing trading or day trading. Also the present price structure may offer a clearer hint as to what the leader (BTC) is more likely to do in the near future.
First let's talk about the wave count. Just like BTC and ETH, this market is showing a 3 3 5 corrective formation with the current consolidation being a Wave 4 of C which means one more leg lower is likely and would be Wave 5. If this wave extends and revisits the low in any kind of dramatic sell off, it is possible to see price within the 37.50 to 22.50 range which is the .618 of the entire previous bullish structure (which it reached during the recent sell off). There is also a 1.618 extension at the 30.50 area which would be a convenient bottom area for a broad Wave 2 completion.
Keep in mind I am not predicting that this market will reach these levels. At this point I know that price action favors bearish momentum which means lower prices are likely to follow but I do not know how low. If selling momentum asserts itself again, price may find support in the 41 to 38 area which is the .618 of the recent bullish swing (which would also put the possibility of an extreme Wave 5 into question.)
Why not buy now? In order for it to revisit the extreme highs (like 80s and 90s), it first needs to push through the 70 to 80 resistance zone. Until that happens, price action will most likely be range bound and slow unless something fundamentally changes. This market is nowhere near that price zone, and instead hesitating just under the 55 resistance which I interpret as a more bearish sign.
So the reason why I am writing about this market is this: Any retrace to lower support levels, followed by a reversal, offers a long term buying opportunity in my opinion. I want to be prepared before this happens so if price reaches these projected supports, I will know what to do instead of react or hesitate. My plan is long term and NOT a swing trade, which means my entry does not have to be precise and also means I am willing to take pain.
There are two scenarios I am watching for. First is a retest and reversal back up off the 41 support zone. The second scenario is if price pushes extreme lows into the 30s or lower. In both situations, I will wait for the low candle to close, and then place an order to buy the break of the high of that low candle. TO BE CLEAR: This type of trading requires a solid plan and RISK management. I will not being using stops because it is a long term investment. So I manage risk through proportional position sizing instead. This means buying into it with an amount that allows me to take pain and still sleep at night. I can always add to the position on the way up. Again this is NOT swing trading, I must emphasize this because it has different risk parameters and management style. (No short term profit targets).
In summary, this market is interesting in many ways and if it offers extreme prices again, would be one that I intend to build a position for the long term. Presently price action is slow, showing signs of bearish momentum and is following the BTC lead. There is nothing attractive about the current price levels. The goal of this analysis is to provide an idea of how I am planning to get into this market, but the market needs to provide the opportunity. The plan must be in place ahead of time because in the thick of extreme price action, emotion will often get in the way. As my former Forex colleague Todd Gordon says: Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Marc, any reason you left out the LTCBTC chart? I've been watching that chart for years (as I was a hodler), and its been in a down turn against BTC since April 2014. The only reason I participated this year with LTC was becuase I was anticipating a revisit (or better) to the 0.618 of the entire bear trend in that chart while BTC was performing very strong. I have a chart posted on my profile if you wanna have a quick look-see. Currently I see a BIG corrective wave 5 before it bottoms out as it failed to break the downtrend line between May and Aug 2017. CHeers!
MarcPMarkets
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@agency, thanks for sharing point of view. Actually I haven't considered that chart only because I am using dollars to invest. I will certain check it out.
"In both situations, I will wait for the low candle to close, and then place an order to buy the break of the high of that low candle". Which time frame?
MarcPMarkets
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@Inct73, 4 hour or above. I realize it is not clear in my explanation, but whenever I refer to a break of a high or low of a candle, if I am not specifically mentioning a time frame, then that means I am referring to the time frame that I am presenting the analysis on.