LTCUSD update: Price is poised to push the 106 low as this market along with the rest of the coins continue to follow BTC's bearish sentiment. All of these markets are at attractive locations when it comes to putting on position trades but until buyers establish themselves, either stay out, or accumulate lightly.
The 118 level was relevant, until price could not mount a meaningful rally and failed to break the bearish trend line. This opens the door to the failed low possibilities which would establish that the selling is drying up and set all of these markets up for a short squeeze. I have been talking about this in recent reports. A short squeeze is no different than when a market reaches its peak and falls apart.
A failed low is basically a fake out. With short interest being up at record levels, the trade is too obvious. Like buying at 20K and confidently expecting 30K, in this situation the herd is shorting or exiting in anticipation of sub 100 prices. Even though all of the technical structures point to lower lows, it is important to consider the possibility of a broad double bottom which is easy to lose sight of in situations like this.
The nearest level to watch is the 102 area because it is the reversal zone boundary relative to the recent 109 low. It is also sitting just above the 100 psychological support which can attract buying as well. If price closes below these levels, the 71 reversal zone boundary becomes an increased possibility.
As bearish as this environment looks, I am anticipating the fake out which has not materialized yet. The most conservative action you can take in these markets in my opinion is to wait it out until stability reappears in the form of price structure. This means forfeiting these extreme low prices, and buying after price breaks above 134 and compromises the bearish trend line.
If you would rather capitalize on these attractive prices, then the next best thing to do is accumulate small amounts. Cost averaging makes more sense in these markets if you are not using margin. The small amounts are what protect you in terms of limited exposure if there is a dramatic move. If you get too big too fast, as many often do, you put yourself at the mercy of the market. Do not let greed drive your actions because that makes you no different than the herd.
In summary, picking tops and bottoms is no different than playing the lottery. If you can comprehend that the bottom is a process, you will be better prepared to capitalize on the extreme price moves and reversal patterns that can occur at locations like this. This market is setting up just like BTC, and what makes it more attractive is the low price and high potential. Keep in mind the next major resistance is in the low 200s and can be reached quickly if the huge short interest gets squeezed (they are forced to become buyers by their own fear, or margin liquidation whichever comes first). Participating in such a move has little to do with technical analysis, and more to do with your ability to embrace risk. The more you can afford to lose, the stronger hand you have.
@SuperMegaMarvellous, Not sure why someone needs hyperbole, or even hyperwave. Be careful with this new indicator from an unproven academic. Please! You should check his earlier calls before December LOL. But my point, and I mean this sincerely; is If newer millennials to the investment market, were not so fixed on the short term trends, but stood back and saw the forest instead of the tree. Or better still, took in the view of the mountain, they would have noticed BTC was in a 4 year rising channel. It kissed the underside of this channel end of 2013 at the high, sold off, then a reversion to the mean occurs. It then had a low, beginning and mid 2015 (from memory). If you take the Fibonacci ratio to the top of this 4 year channel its smack bang on 4.236 Fibonacci ratio ($19,093) where dual resistance of the Fib and long term rising channel occurs. The call was put out to sell as yet another reversion to the mean was to occur. After what was a typical mania cycle, you're supposed to get the HELL OUT and run! Or at the very least take profit. Because what follows is never pretty. This warning and call went out weeks before the all time high. Then again at the beginning of January. Savvy investors who've been around longer than a few years or those who've learned from sage mentors in the different styles of investing, such as Mark, did just that and sold at the high. This was not premium content for subscribers. People such as Mark who graciously give their precious time to people to learn made their views and opinions known, only to be heckled from the sidelines. :(
Unfortunately, the millennials HODL onto the new religion of BITCOIN in the hope and blind faith that their KING will reign once again. I feel sorry for those who had the opportunity to walk away with a fortune, give it all away. Damn sad and upsetting to watch a college kid lose a 7 figure sum on blind faith. I feel for anyone who got burned hoping BTC would reign again. But emotion and misplaced loyalty is no place for investment strategy and risk management. People saw this coming, but the younger crowd didn't listen. Happens all the time. Its a VERY OLD HUMAN story of fear & greed. These markets chew them up and spit them back out. I would question why this this chap promoting Hyperwave, is better over other time proven technical analysis that's not only simple, but has worked for more than 50 years. You would be wiser learning from Mark in position trading and managing inventory over the long term. Because that's why they're still making money when markets turn down. Or, take his sage advise and couple it with what ever other technical analysis be it Fib or Elliot Wave etc. But Hyperwave?????? Stay safe, stay wise, so you can live long and prosper. ;) Apologies for the rant, I'm hoping reason may prevail and carnage avoided. Sincerely.
vaskojovanov
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@diofonte, Shut up! You know nothin' - Peter Griffin
Gomez_Addams
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@vaskojovanov, "To know everything is to know nothing, but to know nothing is to know everything." - Confucius This is a state of mind, not emotion. I see things haven't been as kind to you since BTC found gravity in December. :)
“What goes up must come down.” -Isaac Newton. . . . . Perhaps you should go and play with hyperwave??? "Hey Brian! I turned the stairs into a waterslide!" - Peter Griffin
Solarmass
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Marc thank you! keep the analysis coming on here and SC. always appreciate your thoughts and learning more with every post. cheers mate
YourFriendFrank
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You said this might be a broad bottoming, how should I got about it when using margin trading? This is my first time in a huge correction.
Thanks for gr8 TA
UnknownUnicorn995432
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Thank you for the excellent analysis.
Like other traders are saying here, the entire market is being driven by BTC price movements. And 90% prices are controlled by the exchanges, the remaining 10% going to the pumps and dumps groups and whales.