LTCUSD update: Consolidation breakout occurred with price now trading just under 250. At the moment, based on the current structure, momentum is bullish and is more likely to work its way into the 285 to 321 resistance zone.
Just like BTC, this market has formed a higher low in recent price action which is clear momentum reversal. This formation has lead to the breakout of a triangle that has been developing for two weeks (since the 370 high.) The focus now is on the potential retrace levels that would offer an attractive reward/risk opportunity to go long.
As I write this, price is hesitating within a mini consolidation (a series of inside bars) which is taking place within the area of a previous peak (257.40). This minor resistance can lead to a retest of the 234 level which is the .382 of the recent bullish structure, or the 219 to 210 support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the same structure. These levels are minor supports but do provide prices to watch that offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now.
IF price can retest these areas, a reversal pattern or higher low (just like the one in place around the 220 area) would be the justification to go long. As you can see from the chart. the target is the 285 to 321 resistance zone which is the .618 area relevant to the recent bearish structure. Price has been staying within these broader resistance and support zones which has lead to the triangle that is now obvious on the chart.
Risk will have to be measured at the time the bullish reversal pattern occurs. What to avoid in a situation like this is premature entry. IF price falls through the oncoming supports, then it is more likely to test the low 200s or even the 190s for a possible double bottom formation. That scenario would offer the most attractive buying opportunities, especially for longer time horizon trades.
In summary, the levels that are projected on this chart offer a better possibility of where price can react or reverse. They provide reference points where you can anticipate price action rather than react to it. The key to using this information effectively is to observe and evaluate the outcome of the price action at the time the levels are reached. Not jump in blindly. What you are looking for is price action to prove it is more likely to follow the anticipated scenario and that often unfolds in the form of a reversal pattern. The hardest part is WAITING in the face of building emotional pressure and impulse. By letting the market prove itself, you at least align your thoughts and actions with what the market is more likely to do rather than what you think.
Do you feel it's more accurate to chart LTC against USD instead of LTC/BTC? A lot of the movements you see on the USD chart is tethered to BTC movements, I thought that muddy the picture a little.
elblinko
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Thanks Marc, good analysis.
Anyone else heard much about the apparent LTC adoption by Amazon? Saw an email from customer service to a guy that they would be accepting it in a week or two ...
adrianprazen
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@elblinko, That was a live chat and not an email. Those chats are automated and ment to make you feel like you got an answer. Dont get your hopes up buddy. And F jsnip for doing this shit.
Thank you for the analysis @MarcPMarkets! New to crypto here but not working blindly, focusing on strengthening my knowledge base to make more informed decisions. Aside from obvious trending, resistance/support levels and previous structure I've been utilizing MACD, EMA's, RSI and Bollinger Lines... now trying to recognize patterns such as Head and Shoulders, as well as Double Tops/Bottoms... Can you confirm whether or not there is a Head and Shoulders pattern in your graph, and if so (ball parking numbers here) would we be subtracting 240 from 373, multiplied by 100 for a target level of 13,300? Apologies to the TV community here for the newbie question, but any other suggestions for indicators/patterns would be appreciated and criticism not so much. Thank you again @MarcPMarkets and this thread!
kseeley1083
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Whoops... forgot to include that I've also been implementing Fibs, Fib Retracements and Fib Extensions.
giancarlosarm11
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Bought in at 240, LTC shot to 300-305 now trending down. Do you suspect it will continue to trend down or possible rise further ?