We arrived to the profit taking area on Friday. I booked profits on half of the position. We are near to the end of the 1st daily cycle of this IC so this is not the time to be brave with shorts. It can reverse any time now.
The volume is decreasing. The indicators are starting to show some divergencies. I used the FIBO retracement to see where could this decline end. The 50% retacement of the previous rally was at 3.113. I was waiting for the break of 3.070 so that was too early. The next level is the 61,8% FIBO retracement at 2.939. That price looks the most likely to print the DCL in the next 1-2 days. I still think tomorrow or Tuesday we will have "the low in".
I noticed an interesting thing. The 78,6% Fibo retrcement is at 2.692. It's almost the same level where the target price is what we counted from the triangle. (Height of the triangle -yellow) If you start to go long in Natty before I post the long idea just be sure to have some dry powder at 2.692. The chance is low that we tag that level but it's not out of the table.
Komen
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I would like to wait the close before making a decision. It looks the decline finished now as we printed a swing low.
Komen
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Swing:
Komen
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But you can google it.
Komen
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We are erasing yesterday's whole rally. The reason is the volume. Yesterday's volume was too low to go long that's why I wanted to wait the close. I still have the 50% short position.
Komen
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There's no reason to panic though. If you are long just hold the position and get ready to add. We are very very close.
Komen
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I don't want to push the short trade anymore here. So I'm closing my shorts as I got better opportunity than stopping out yesterday at the swing. TSI gave in the signal - crossed over. The RSI has left overbought so even if we have a lower low there will be a divergence...
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
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Komen
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There was no waterfall decline after breaking 3.070 so there is no reason to stay in a short position.
Komen
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Komen
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I think they will hit Natty at the report. That will be our entry.
Komen
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Fingers on the buy button. When we break down 2.99 I will be buying.
Komen
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Coiled Spring
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QuantitativeExhaustion
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Volume Descending with a great double divergent bottom !
Weather and storage reports are just noise. If that weren't the case we would all be rich. I notice as of recently, the range has been narrow. 4 green days 4 red days. We've had 2 green days so far. I wouldn't get to greedy. Hopefully a good trend will break out. I don't care if it's up or down.
Arpi
How much weight do you give to the weather forecast/NG usage towards your analysis ?
fxempire.com/markets/natural-gas/overview Or are you primarily focused on the chart analysis?
Thanks in advance.
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