Overview:
Getting caught up in the short term charts and looking at price movements in the one hour and less time frame almost always leads new traders, over time, to experience portfolio erosion. Early on when I first entered the crypto space, I mentioned I was experimenting with different strategies, some shorter term, some longer term, with the intent to increase core holdings by trading around my long term portfolio. Whether I’m trading stocks, metals, or cryptos my goal is to outperform an index I created the day I entered the space. I have a defined Goal as well as a Strategy and Plan to implement it. Whether you own a business, trade cryptos, or flip houses, not having a broader term perspective, failing to plan and implement a strategy to achieve a goal, is like buying a rudderless sailboat, jumping on board, setting sail and HOPING you eventually get to where you want to
Technical:
The pullback was deeper than expected as it pierced the 120 level or 0.618 retrace of the previous bull move. We are starting to show support at the 120 level or the 0.786 retrace level. This could simply be noise where larger traders were fishing for stops at the 0.618 level and swing traders that entered longs here with tight stops were caught causing a fake out and creating the sellers they needed at lower levels where buy orders were already placed. This happens in markets more liquid then these which is the reason I personally do not use stop orders. One interesting note is that the 1.0 extension of the previous fractal wave is right at the 155 level and provides additional confirmation that this will likely be a level to look for a bearish reversal. We still have a longer term target of 231 and the plan is to sell into resistance levels, re-buy in during pullbacks SLOWLY reducing our overall positional costs as we trend to the upside.
I bought the initial trade position back at 127.25 which was part of the sell strategy at 137. Keep in mind I am not looking to time tops and bottoms or make quick profits, this is a longer term strategy with a broader market perspective. I am also using this dip to an extreme level as an opportunity to add another trade here at the 120.80 where I added another 1/3 position. This is a part of an overall strategy and are not just trades to make trades. This strategy is part of the overall plan to reach my final goal.
Summary:
This is NOT a detailed summary of my particular strategy but the actions I am taking to implement it. There are many variables that go into managing your portfolio, as I mentioned in my update on BTC’ where I trimmed off some at a lower level. This was not an impulse trade, this was a thought out calculated positional trade based on a risk reward scenario. I am not concerned about timing tops and bottoms or making a correct call on the chart. I did not care if Bitcoin went up or down as I had positioned myself to take advantage of either scenario. My main concern is always Portfolio Management and maximizing the use of my cash position, continually eating away at my overall cost position as we trend to the upside. Re-entry points are calculated with an attempt to maximize returns using potential reversal levels and price signals.
Additional Comment
I am an investor first, trader second as history has shown that long term buy and HODLR strategies outperform pure trading ones. I have a Plan and Several strategies to reach my long term Goals. The question you should be asking yourself is what is your plan and strategy to achieve your goals?
Getting caught up in the short term charts and looking at price movements in the one hour and less time frame almost always leads new traders, over time, to experience portfolio erosion. Early on when I first entered the crypto space, I mentioned I was experimenting with different strategies, some shorter term, some longer term, with the intent to increase core holdings by trading around my long term portfolio. Whether I’m trading stocks, metals, or cryptos my goal is to outperform an index I created the day I entered the space. I have a defined Goal as well as a Strategy and Plan to implement it. Whether you own a business, trade cryptos, or flip houses, not having a broader term perspective, failing to plan and implement a strategy to achieve a goal, is like buying a rudderless sailboat, jumping on board, setting sail and HOPING you eventually get to where you want to
Technical:
The pullback was deeper than expected as it pierced the 120 level or 0.618 retrace of the previous bull move. We are starting to show support at the 120 level or the 0.786 retrace level. This could simply be noise where larger traders were fishing for stops at the 0.618 level and swing traders that entered longs here with tight stops were caught causing a fake out and creating the sellers they needed at lower levels where buy orders were already placed. This happens in markets more liquid then these which is the reason I personally do not use stop orders. One interesting note is that the 1.0 extension of the previous fractal wave is right at the 155 level and provides additional confirmation that this will likely be a level to look for a bearish reversal. We still have a longer term target of 231 and the plan is to sell into resistance levels, re-buy in during pullbacks SLOWLY reducing our overall positional costs as we trend to the upside.
I bought the initial trade position back at 127.25 which was part of the sell strategy at 137. Keep in mind I am not looking to time tops and bottoms or make quick profits, this is a longer term strategy with a broader market perspective. I am also using this dip to an extreme level as an opportunity to add another trade here at the 120.80 where I added another 1/3 position. This is a part of an overall strategy and are not just trades to make trades. This strategy is part of the overall plan to reach my final goal.
Summary:
This is NOT a detailed summary of my particular strategy but the actions I am taking to implement it. There are many variables that go into managing your portfolio, as I mentioned in my update on BTC’ where I trimmed off some at a lower level. This was not an impulse trade, this was a thought out calculated positional trade based on a risk reward scenario. I am not concerned about timing tops and bottoms or making a correct call on the chart. I did not care if Bitcoin went up or down as I had positioned myself to take advantage of either scenario. My main concern is always Portfolio Management and maximizing the use of my cash position, continually eating away at my overall cost position as we trend to the upside. Re-entry points are calculated with an attempt to maximize returns using potential reversal levels and price signals.
Additional Comment
I am an investor first, trader second as history has shown that long term buy and HODLR strategies outperform pure trading ones. I have a Plan and Several strategies to reach my long term Goals. The question you should be asking yourself is what is your plan and strategy to achieve your goals?
