NIFTY GETTING OVERVALUED

Amid soft global cues, Nifty’s recent jump appears unsupported by fundamentals. Global markets are subdued, with U.S. indices trending lower and Fed rate expectations uncertain. Domestically, banks have already priced in new provisions, while IT remains a laggard with no fresh triggers, indicating the rally lacks breadth or conviction .

India’s MEA denial of Trump’s Russian oil claim adds geopolitical noise, potentially straining trade sentiment . The move from the recent support zone (“value line”) has been too steep and low-volume, suggesting distribution at current levels (~25,700–25,900).

Technically, Nifty faces strong downside risk toward 25,500–25,000, especially if global weakness persists. With no tangible drivers to justify this rise, traders should remain cautious — a short-term pullback looks increasingly probable.

Sources:
[1] Reuters – India’s Nifty at one-year high as Reliance counters IT pressure
[2] Politico – India contradicts Trump on Russian oil pledge
[3] The Guardian – India casts doubt on Trump’s claims on Russian oil