(In the last NIFTY OUTLOOK post the Bearish Wolfe has completed its target,Now we may see signs of Bullishness) This is not the very first time that NIFTY has formed a pattern roughly similar to Shooting star on Monthly TF . This has been formed before during the month of October 2020, January 2021 & recently October 2021.
Now the few crucial points that I have noted is the fall during: Low for the next upside rally is generally made in the last working day of the month. 30th Oct 2020 found its support at 28th Aug 2020 Closing 29th Jan 2021 found its support in between roughly 15th to 18th Dec 2020 Closing Currently NIFTY 29th Oct closing is standing at 16th Sept Support And generally NIFTY has found its support near its 1 - 1.5 Months back high or low
So Why not wait for some more time for the low to be taken out before turning Bearish (Sell on Rise).
I am holding 38000 PE 3Nov expiry...any chance of gapdown or any dip on Monday?
AdarshDey
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@RamaSriram, First of all Carrying options in weekends is a great financial crime towards your family. And Second I really don't expect any chances of gap-down. But i will pray market opens flat so that you can exit.
RamaSriram
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@FinancelY, that is really kind of you. Thanks. I will see for any dip and come out. this was a onetime mistake I did since the price went too low and a double mistake was averaging which I have never done before. I am usually extra cautious...this was a freaky Friday act...
AdarshDey
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@RamaSriram, Market may go more downside and your positions may turn profitable! After all this is market anything can happen and I am not God. But it would take just 15 mins of bullishness to make you exit in panic. So that is where discipline comes, we check whether market is respecting whatever we have assumed and analysed. And then take positions.
RamaSriram
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@FinancelY, sure, thanks for your words of wisdom. LUckily, today's losing trade turned out to be a winning one, since I quickly exited with loss and took up a CE when the market started trading above 39500...was able to cover my lossess fully as also made a marginal profit. Thanks for the caution.