Hello, long term i think this pair has clearly more way down to go. Looking at W1 chart we see the price broke the long term trendline, made the first LL and is doing a pullback trying to retest the trendline.
AO shows also the first convergence, it will help me to apply the convergence-divergence setup on D1 chart.
Here on D1 chart we see choppy price action making a complex correction for Wave 2 (or wave B). Its tricky to trade inside this wave so it will be better to wait for a short setup, ideally near 0.9000
There is a possible long setup right now on H4 chart (see below) to make some pips before the expected strong decline.
Fundamentally, its expected the RBNZ will cut rates sooner than later in this "currency war", so the short entry would have more possibilities, be prepared for that.
Regards.
Komen
FullTimeTrader
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UPDATE. First target hit and closed all positions due tu strong resistance. Will be looking to sell.
IvanLabrie
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It boils down to which currency devaluates faster vs usd.
Lately gold has been falling faster, but it's about to change, so the oil correlated pairs will suffer next I think.
Either way, both are correlating, and it could go up or down from here. I don't see a setup.
Did you see my audcad chart?
FullTimeTrader
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It dependes on trading style, for me correlation gives useful general information but not entry points. This setup is technical based on analysis above,I will enter long on H4 TF because do not want to stay long time on a trade, the market is very volatile last weeks. Then i will try to short after RBNZ news.
IvanLabrie
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Again, have you read my study on the subject?
I think the only pairs viable for EW analysis are the ones with the biggest liquidity, speculation and human emotion driving the price, like EURUSD.
During short term events like news, people do participate more, and waves are easily predictable in lower timeframes.
Just a theory I came to consider.