QQQ – Smart Money Concepts Bearish Setup (1H Chart)

2 Jun

Wavervanir International LLC | June 2, 2025

🔍 Chart Context:
The QQQ is currently reacting from a premium supply zone after multiple internal Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) events, showing clear signs of distribution at the top.

🧠 SMC Breakdown
Premium Zone Rejection near $521–523 was met with strong bearish reaction and high sell volume (1.22M).

Multiple BoS and ChoCH events signal institutional unloading.

Weak High formation suggests liquidity sweep followed by directional sell-off.

Current candle structure shows an intent to revisit demand zones below.

📊 Liquidity & Target Zones
First imbalance (FVG) zone at $507–510 is likely to get mitigated.

Second key zone aligns with Equilibrium near $487–490, offering the next logical magnet.

A deeper liquidity pool exists at $465–470, consistent with institutional fill behavior.

🧩 Macro View
Tech-heavy indexes underperforming recently amid shifting Fed expectations.

U.S. 10Y yields climbing and sticky inflation may pressure QQQ's valuation multiples.

NQ/QQQ divergence from breadth suggests fragility at the highs.

📈 Trade Idea
📌 Bearish Bias Active
🎯 Short Entry: $517–519 (on any lower timeframe mitigation or retrace)
🛑 Stop Loss: Above $523 (invalidates supply)
✅ Target 1: $507
✅ Target 2: $490
🚨 Extended Target: $467

Probability:

Bearish Continuation: 70%

Reclaim Premium Zone: 30%

💬 Call to Action:
Monitor volume + liquidity interaction near the mid-level FVG. If downside accelerates with confirmation from NQ divergence, we could see a cascade to equilibrium or even deeper. Risk-manage with volatility in mind.

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2 Jun

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