The S&P 500 is finally ready to break out and achieve record closes once again. I have identified the zone before the next pullback. The next near-term top should occur by August 23 above 2900. The green box is my starting zone for the top. The black bordered polygon will most likely contain the top. There is strong resistance in this polygon. A short drop should occur after this top before another burst well above 2925 by mid-September.
What are the real-world scenarios to likely drive this quick move up? My guess is a trade deal between the US and at least Mexico, possibly Mexico, Canada, EU, and/or China.
I still have the actual market top on pace for November 2018. This top should be above 3000, but might not make it to 3100. More to follow.
Would you be willing to explain your rationale between July 25 and Aug 2? Between 1 and 2, there is rightfully a correction. Your B wave is 5 segments, not the 3 segments I understand to be the only valid amount for a B wave. I'm still gaining experience in EW. I'm wondering about your thoughts on that being a horizon triangle instead? That features a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern which would fit the 15 segments you have labeled there. I love what you're doing here and would appreciate your feedback/educational help.
@iamericlentz, B and D waves, as well as 2 and 4 waves can either be 3 or 5 segments. Typically if one is 3 segments the other is 5 and vice versa. I know basic EW training states 5 waves are always followed by a 3 wave correction. I was originally taught this was the golden rule. Other instructors have displayed the one offs and exceptions to the rule. For instance, wave 5 (or C) should always extend beyond wave 3 (or A). This is not always true but is difficult to spot when you are tracing past waves looking for wave 5 (or C) to extend beyond wave 3 (or A). A great example of this occurred in the recent Primary wave 4 from January 26, 2018 through April 2, 2018 as seen in this snapshot tradingview.com/x/46BVBFqE/. I began applying this potential 5 segment concept to all corrective waves. I will mark all 5 waves if I see it, otherwise I will default back to 3. I have not had to look too hard to spot these waves. Almost always one of the corrective waves has been 5 segments and one has been 3. I do not recall ever spotting 2 corrective waves in during a 5 wave cycle that were both 3 segments in length.
I hope this helps. Everyone creates their own methodologies over time as no one analytic process is right all of the time. This website is great to see how different techniques and personal background interpret and project future movement. The best part is when multiple people are able to use different methods and project the same result. Keep learning and you will find what works for you!