markrivest
Singkat

SPX Needs One More Rally For Important Top

SP:SPX   Indeks S&P 500
164 4 16
Today 12/13/16 the SPX             moved above the Fibonacci cluster at 2258, 2261 and 2267. The next Fibonacci coordinate is extremely important because if the SPX             moves above this point it will be very bullish .

The Fibonacci point is SPX             2285.92. Please see my SPX             daily chart posted 12/12/16. Illustrated is a wave "2" at June 27th bottom and wave "3" top at August 15th. This suppose wave "3" is shorter than wave "1" which went from February to June. In Elliott rules, wave "3" can never be the shortest.

Wave "3" = 202.13 + 2083.79 wave "4" = 2285.92. This is the maximum point for wave "5" for the supposed Ending Diagonal Triangle that began on 2/11/16.

The 15 minute SPX             chart show three waves up complete from the 12/1/16 bottom. The fourth wave down may still be under construction. The final fifth wave up may rally into the FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM - ET.

Occasionally important market turns have come just after FOMC announcements. *(see SPX             on 12/12/07).
Watch the rising trend line from April and August tops - its at SPX             2280 it could be a stopping point for the current bull run. Also watch for DJIA             20,000 it may also be a topping signal.

Mark
Agreed I have counted the same ending diagonal as below:

Ending diagonal's are constructed as 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves which are clear to see on the chart. This indeed means we're near the completion and should not pass ~2285 otherwise this isn't an ending diagonal! - I have two concerns/doubts with this set-up as below ...
1) We're VERY near the top of assumed ending diagonal going into a major FED announcement. I can't envisage the market staying below 2285 with all the volatility associated with the news. It would require the market to move only in one direction which i find hard to believe.
2) On the larger timeframes:

By my count we're in the 5th wave of a major trend going back to 2009 which also happens to be the 5th wave of the trend since 1974 (as far back as my chart goes!). Anyway, looking at this chart (5th wave starting in 2009) we see a completion target around 2500+. This ending diagonal goes against that idea and would cut short this 5th wave drastically, if it were correct. I'm not overly familiar with EW theory so not clear on the rules on how ending diagonals sit within larger waves.
I suppose in terms of trading though it's a decent RR since the SL (above 2285) would be fairly tight so probably worth a small punt.
Balas
markrivest BhaktaBasics
Hi @BhaktaBasics,

Thanks for the feed back. The count you show from 2009 is a valid alternate count. There is another count in which the SPX could be near the of Primary wave "3" up from the 2010 bottom. In this count the SPX could go down for the next 2 to 3 months and then rally to 2500 in Primary wave "5"

Mark
Balas
BhaktaBasics markrivest
@markrivest, If you have time, i wouldn't mind seeing your count on a chart as you have described as i'm struggling to recognise such a count on my chart. I mentioned a good RR yesterday but unfortunately didn't take the trade due to my first concern (Volatility of the FED announcement). Lesson learnt the market will always do what it wants. There was no volatility (price swings) at all and it just moved down in an orderly fashion. I guess the news was so baked in to the markets and Yellen didn't offer any surprises.
I guess there's still plenty of opportunity to get short but i'd like to see your count first to see the likely alternate scenarios.
Balas
markrivest BhaktaBasics
Hi @BhaktaBasics,

I already have a long term SPX chart posted. It is the second post I did for this site. The post is three months ago, its in the fifth record block.

Mark
Balas
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