So strong Fib confluences... it looks so good to me...
Komen
wolfah
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(1)-peak at 2016-04-18 is ok. (2)-low MUST be at 2016-06-27! "B" and "C" are a "1" and "2" of the next lower degree (same as "3" and "4"). "4" should have at least 6 to 12 days, according to wave "2". -Tricky to count! ;-)
mikeoakster
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Why "must" (2) be at 2016-06-27?
Don't you consider necessary/important to draw the (0)-(2) channel without having price action below it?
wolfah
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@mikeoakster, Because wave (2) must at least retrace 0.382 of wave (1) and often does 0.618! Sorry, but these are the rules. The lower parallel channel line often starts from "2" and is not necessarily linked to the origin (0). - I would like to send you a screenshot, but this is not possible at TW. :-(
mikeoakster
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Please share the excerpt of the EW Principle having the rule stating a minimum retracement level for a 2nd wave.
Besides that, actually the proposed running flat did retrace at least 38,2% (only its orthodox end stayed above that level).
The point where wave 2 ends is where one should copy a parallel to the 1-3 line for projecting a target for 4. And you do that only after wave 3 is complete, which, according to this idea, has not happen yet.
You can share here a link to your idea.
See also Prechter's 1st and 2nd edition: 0.236
and Heussinger's book: 0.236
So, forget the first link (ELWAVE) and SORRY!
BTW: I use ELWAVE and it works properly with 0.236, but their FAQ pages are wrong in this case! Sorry again!
mikeoakster
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Hi. No problem, but IMO you should have your knowledge source based entirely on the EW Principle (a free online edition is available to read on the EWI site - it's the 10th edition).
In the EW Principle, there is no rule related to a minimum retracement % for any type of corrective wave, which means you should allow any minimal retracement % in your EW analysis as long as it is compliant with the oficial rules and guidelines.
kunsan
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This looks about right to me, except that I don't agree with your channel. The upper channel should touch '3' and the lower channel line should start from '2'.
There's an important Bradley date in early June and I suspect the market will continue to gradually rise into that date. Fed meeting is June 13/14 which might contain a negative surprise to spook the market downwards.
mikeoakster
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The channel is the 0-2 (drawn when only 1 and 2 are complete; 3 is ongoing and should challenge the top of the channel).
You are referring to the 1-3 channel (drawn after the completion of 3).