$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025

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🔮 SPY SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚨 Inflation spotlight (⚠️ delay risk): October CPI and Jobless Claims — both subject to government shutdown delay — were originally scheduled for release this morning. Markets may stay cautious or reactive to leaks and private inflation trackers in the absence of official prints.
💬 Fed rotation continues: A packed Fed lineup — Mary Daly, John Williams, Kashkari, Hammack, and Bostic — will steer tone across the day, shaping expectations for December guidance.
📉 Budget check: A fresh federal deficit report (-$215B) adds to the fiscal backdrop narrative, though reaction may stay muted if major data doesn’t hit.

📊 Key Data and Events (ET)

⏰ 8:00 AM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) speech
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay)
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay)
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) | 225,000 forecast (subject to delay)
⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) welcoming remarks
⏰ 10:25 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) opening remarks
⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech
⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech
⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Oct) | -$215B deficit vs -$257.5B prior
⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech

⚠️ Note:
CPI and Jobless Claims carry the highest market impact this week — but both remain at risk of delay due to the ongoing federal data blackout. Fed speakers and any CPI proxies (like Cleveland Fed’s nowcast) will drive intraday volatility instead.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.

📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #CPI #inflation #Fed #Williams #Bostic #Musanlem #Hammack #macro #markets #yields #shutdown

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