SPY: Smart money bought the dip
The VIX index shows us that the smart money actively bought the dip from the Sept. 12th, to yesterday's high.
This range gives us a long lasting support/resistance level that the market will acknowledge in the future, and that can serve as guidance for us as well. If we see a breakout from here onwards, and we manage to stay above this range, upside is highly likely.
There are a few angles we can take, when looking at the daily $SPY chart structure. From a 'Time at Mode' trend analysis perspective, the accumulation pattern from the 2016 low to today lasted 13 weeks, then we took off from that level and actually hit the top target, so now we need to see if the market is strong enough to trend even higher from it. To confirm this, we need to see a new 13 week+ accumulation level, ideally, before taking off, and considering we have 8 weeks at the top level, that would leave us waiting in a sideways range until the end of October.
Now, it could also happen that we rally from this 8 week level once we break above it, but this would signal exhaustion in the trend (probably a huge short squeeze causing a rapid move), which would imply that this could be the last rally before a move down back to the 13 week mode from where we took off, which is around the 207 mark. This top could materialize within 8-9-10 weeks from the breakout above 217.36, putting a top after November 18th-December 2nd (which makes a lot of sense considering the date of the elections and the next FOMC). If we proyect a target based on this 8 week range, we can obtain two distinct figures, which we can also contrast to my longer term projections.
Targets for the last 8+ weekly range above: 225, possibly 235.
Long term uptrend targets if by October's close we don't retest 210: 235-250.
In the short term, we look to buy at market, and buy dips towards 214.73, with all stops under 214.73. If we see 218.43 hit within 3 days we're in excellent shape for a rapid rally. If we don't we also have to see if we hit 217.92 by or before Sept. 29th. Short term risk comes from the OPEC meeting on the 27th which could create volatility, with my expectation of crude being sideways for the year, so we have keep this in mind. If we don't retest this target on time, it means we can go back down to 214.59 before rallying again, but I doubt it.
Keep an eye on the RgMov speed line signal, if and once we break it, we'd be fairly safer on the long side.
There you have it folks, you know what to look for, and how to trade from here onwards. Good luck, and if you have questions or are interested in learning more about these methods, contact me.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
This range gives us a long lasting support/resistance level that the market will acknowledge in the future, and that can serve as guidance for us as well. If we see a breakout from here onwards, and we manage to stay above this range, upside is highly likely.
There are a few angles we can take, when looking at the daily $SPY chart structure. From a 'Time at Mode' trend analysis perspective, the accumulation pattern from the 2016 low to today lasted 13 weeks, then we took off from that level and actually hit the top target, so now we need to see if the market is strong enough to trend even higher from it. To confirm this, we need to see a new 13 week+ accumulation level, ideally, before taking off, and considering we have 8 weeks at the top level, that would leave us waiting in a sideways range until the end of October.
Now, it could also happen that we rally from this 8 week level once we break above it, but this would signal exhaustion in the trend (probably a huge short squeeze causing a rapid move), which would imply that this could be the last rally before a move down back to the 13 week mode from where we took off, which is around the 207 mark. This top could materialize within 8-9-10 weeks from the breakout above 217.36, putting a top after November 18th-December 2nd (which makes a lot of sense considering the date of the elections and the next FOMC). If we proyect a target based on this 8 week range, we can obtain two distinct figures, which we can also contrast to my longer term projections.
Targets for the last 8+ weekly range above: 225, possibly 235.
Long term uptrend targets if by October's close we don't retest 210: 235-250.
In the short term, we look to buy at market, and buy dips towards 214.73, with all stops under 214.73. If we see 218.43 hit within 3 days we're in excellent shape for a rapid rally. If we don't we also have to see if we hit 217.92 by or before Sept. 29th. Short term risk comes from the OPEC meeting on the 27th which could create volatility, with my expectation of crude being sideways for the year, so we have keep this in mind. If we don't retest this target on time, it means we can go back down to 214.59 before rallying again, but I doubt it.
Keep an eye on the RgMov speed line signal, if and once we break it, we'd be fairly safer on the long side.
There you have it folks, you know what to look for, and how to trade from here onwards. Good luck, and if you have questions or are interested in learning more about these methods, contact me.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Komen:
I will post a more stripped down version of this chart showing a few more key points on the SPX500. Stay tuned.
Komen:
I made a mistake: "all stops under 213.44"
Komen:
Stuck at resistance for now, let's see if we break up and validate the target on Monday.
Komen:
Looks good, VIX slowed down enough here, upside is highly probable.
Looks good, VIX slowed down enough here, upside is highly probable.
Komen:
Komen:
Smart money bought the dip for now, judging by futures activity, and where SPY closed.
Komen:
The dip to support gave a good long entry, refer to my 'systemic risk' chart for updates.
