The TLT is lagging far behind where it ought to be, as measured by the 10-year and the 30-year Treasury Note&Bond Futures.
Why is that? It could very well be a sign of some dislocation, or a liquidity issue within the market. It could also be an opportunity to sell the futures (ZBH2017, ZNH2017) and buy the cash market (TLT).
Something is out of line here from what I can see.
You can clearly see the base formations in all of these markets and couple together the weak economic data coming out lately together with the monstrous short position in these futures markets and you have a recipe for a large advance here in all 3 of these markets.
Tim 12:34AM EST 2/8/2017
Note: I've pointed out this spread in each of the last two trading days in the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room.
Correct me if I'm wrong. This should be the TAM signal in place there now.
timwest
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@IvanLabrie, It's also a failed downtrend here from the January high, so the upside potential is there. We saw range expansion to the upside on Tuesday, which is bullish, and follow through today (Wednesday).
Every day is a new day and we can decide to ADD, HOLD, or EXIT based on how TLT is performing relative to other markets and indicators.
IvanLabrie
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@timwest, indeed. Great pick Tim, let's see how it evolves.
Correct me if I'm wrong. This should be the TAM signal in place there now.