USDCAD - Still bearish bias, but not time to sell

I'm still holding a bearish bias on USDCAD. In fact, as shared in my earlier post on this pair, I'm holding a sell bias on USDCAD for the rest of 2017.

However, that does not mean I'm just gonna short this pair at any price.

To have a profitable trade, we need to get the following right -

1) Direction
2) Time of Entry
3) Time of Exit

If any of these doesn't go in our favour, the trade will most likely be a difficult trade.

So for me (according to my plan), looking at how price has been developing recently on USDCAD, I do not see a setup for me to short now. The timing isn't right for me.

Here are some reasons why I'm not shorting yet -

1) Price is forming a potential diagonal (wedge) structure to the downside;
2) There is a divergence forming, showing a lack of momentum going lower; and
3) Price has reached an extreme fibonacci region of 200% to 261.8%.

All these gave me the reason to believe that we might see a retracement or short term reversal towards 1.2781 - 1.2928 region.

This retracement will be a good opportunity for me to look for sell.

**Just my 2 cents view on USDCAD. Not a trade call. Do your own due diligence.