After this nice cypher winner we now have a potential gartley setting up. See the entries stops and targets in a screenshot attached to comments to this idea.
this is the actual picture that was drawn by Pattern Search Software with entries, stops and targets: prntscr.com/e4aufm
jlg83
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Hi Mr Alexander, i'm sorry but i've some difficulty with this chart.
i rather see a Cypher formation with a C point extended from XA leg at 111.594 (3:00 the 7th of feb) even if it's only a 1.241 extension instead of 1.272.
then prices are actually tryng to reach D at about 113.45 ...
Alexander_Nikitin
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@jlg83, hello. if C-point doesn't reach 1,272 then it won't be a cypher. Gartley rules may vary(harmonic or advanced patterns), bats may vary (harmonic or advanced patterns), butterflies can vary (harmonic or advanced pattern). But cyphers cannot. Cypher was never a harmonic pattern. We can say that Tradeempowered modified gartleys, bats and butterflies and turned them into advanced patterns. But they developed cyphers themselves. It didn't exist before. It is not a harmonic pattern that was modified and turned into an advanced pattern. And because it was never modified by anyone its rules stay original. There's some misleading understanding of a cypher on the web. People simply describe Shark pattern rules and call it Cypher. Some other sources mix them both into one and call it Cypher. But let's be honest: we have Akil Stokes here on TradingView and whoever may contact him in PM and ask a question.
jlg83
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@Alexander_Nikitin, yes, thanks for these informations.
in fact i just noticed that your C point seemed not to be well located, but it's true this is not a real Cypher.
Alexander_Nikitin
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@jlg83, My C-point was perfectly located and the cypher was valid.
Hello Alex, may I ask #1is it true that Harmonic probability is lower in trending market than ranging? #2there are two disadvantage to lower TF harmonic when upper TF is trending down, and this lower TF is anticipating trend reveral; secondly, if you add wave counting, you may see the entrance point did not show minor wave 5 yet. I am not sure if these three points will reduce the winning probability.
gcplau
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@gcplau, I just finished your writing about harmonic & advanced pattern....from your experience which one has higher win-rate in what types of trending? TO me, key level with rsi div & pa is a highly convincing confluences... I will vote for them.
Alexander_Nikitin
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@gcplau, I don't trade harmonics. But I did backtest them and I found them not as accurate as rsi divergence+dodji candle. As for advanced formations they are accurate on lower timeframes as well as on higher timeframe. Every pair has its own personality. I saw bats working extremely good on 1H eurusd and extremely bad on 1H audusd. You can read more about my thoughts on my website: ps-software.net/about-me/
gcplau
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@Alexander_Nikitin, I agree, fx pair & tf specific. Interesting that you think rsi div & doji pa on key level is relatively more accurate. One thing though.... the moment I saw you get harmonic or whatever computerized...I honestly think it will be beaten finally because in this world everyone is building big data and gorilla super computer...