Shun-Jiru
Singkat

USDollar Possibility

FX:USDOLLAR   Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
USD tends to strengthen at the beginning of the year. If the USD does follow the usual to usual yoy trends then for the first 2 months we'll see a bullish move. Then afterwards it will continue the bearish trend southward. If it doesn't strengthen then we will see a continuous ranging trade until it decides to continue the bearish route.
Hi,

Thank you so much for your detailed reply. I just sold my entire position at a 1100USD loss, but I agree with you that it was headed down. I usually would not ask but now I am nervous in making a new trade. Could you suggest to me the best buy area and SL and TP just for this one trade. Because I have made what is for me a big loss I would really like to make the right decision as to not make another big loss.
Balas
@Fiyi77,
You're a bit late on this trade. See the two yellow dots? those are support areas. Wait until the first support area breaks. There might be a chance it might break lower here. My strategy would be to wait until it retraces up before shorting. It might not retrace until it goes to the 2nd yellow circle.

Same thing... watch the USDollar. Once this 11841 support breaks it will go lower. There is a chance it may do a "dead cat bounce" off of this support. A heavy spike lower will indicate lots of shorts placed underneath this support line, so you may see it spike down a lot. If that happens then you'll see a quick retrace with a triangle consolidation for another a couple months.

I don't use stop losses. I have a huge margin to play with. I will only stop when I realize the direction was wrong... that may be 300~350 pips down the drain.
Balas
@Fiyi77, FYI - here's another idea from my friend -


Balas
@Fiyi77,


Here's what a dead cat bounce would look like. You might be able to short it at the top when it goes up. 0.382 retrace is fine. You just have to wait and see. It might not even retrace.
Since I'm in the +300 pip range, I can just sit and wait before my predictions come true.
Balas
Sorry I as talking about USDCAD
Balas
@Fiyi77, for UC you traded the opposite direction. It's best to stop and short it now.
Balas
Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
@Shun-Jiru, Here's the big picture. My target is actually way down there
Balas
Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
@Shun-Jiru,


Short Term Idea



Long Term Idea
Balas
Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
@Shun-Jiru, Again for these two ideas... I ONLY SHORTED. I didn't buy the retrace. I waited until it finished consolidating before I continued to short again. There was about a 4~5 month period where I didn't trade this currency. You have to be patient and wait for opportunities to arise before making a move. When you try to buy the counter trend you tend to risk it if the trade goes south.

For my UJ Trade I shorted at 112.40, my trade went bad to 113.70 or something. I didn't freak out and just waited. I knew the $ was going to get weaker so I just held my position. Now the trade is in the positive.

Patience is key. Just find the major trend and follow the direction.
Balas
HI, do you think this is still heading down or will it go up any time soon? I have bought uSD at 1.268 and would rather sell at a loss instead if loosing any more. What is you opinion
Balas
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