On April 21, 2017, the US Oil ETF (
USO
) 50 day moving average (DMA) crossed below the 200 DMA. Historically this has occurred 8 times and the stock has a minimal drop of 0.636% over the next 12 trading days. The fund has a median drop of 2.817% and a maximum drop of 27.553% over the next 12 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.7484. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.7960. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund has been moving up, but there is a delay and it could come back down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8095 while the negative is at 0.9963. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.5778 and D value is 49.2183. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the fund is trending down, but has some distance before reaching oversold territory.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction has the fund moving down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position in its trend channel, the fund could drop at least 3.00%% over the next 12 trading days.
USO
) 50 day moving average (DMA) crossed below the 200 DMA. Historically this has occurred 8 times and the stock has a minimal drop of 0.636% over the next 12 trading days. The fund has a median drop of 2.817% and a maximum drop of 27.553% over the next 12 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.7484. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.7960. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund has been moving up, but there is a delay and it could come back down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8095 while the negative is at 0.9963. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.5778 and D value is 49.2183. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the fund is trending down, but has some distance before reaching oversold territory.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction has the fund moving down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position in its trend channel, the fund could drop at least 3.00%% over the next 12 trading days.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
