As I'm watching the ideas and I can see 95% of the ideas are short in oil. I'm sure some of you missed this move. It looks now this is the end of the world. You were not able to long oil when it bottomed or tested back the 200 MA. Some of you lost a lot of money during the last 3 years when it was going down day after day. Then you were waiting for oil to go below 20$ to go long in February. It didn't happen though. So now when you missed the move you start a revenge short. This is the way how you reset your account. Oil bottomed. B.O.T.T.O.M.E.D. This low what we printed at the 200 MA is as serious as it was in February. Look how many pullbacks we had in February... The hardest pullback was 2 red candles... Guys you can't short this market. It will rally for 5 months from now and it will break 52$ in the first daily cycle.
So you missed 6$ in this rally. What are you going to do? 1. Trying to catch a 1-2$ dollar day with you revenge short ( your chance is : 7/30=23%.) If you do that you just gamble: if you don't catch the day when it's going down you have to close your position in 24hrs because price might never go back there again in your life... Who shorted oil in Feb-March at the A-B-C-D-E points was foredoomed to failure. 2. Or you are trying to get into this rally which will go minimum to 60$ in the next months - and forget about the first 6 $. You were not in the first 6$. It's not a big point. You can be the part of the next 15$.
So forget about shorting this vehicle. Get in the first red candle day and add at the first daily cycle low. I will be here posting.
Komen
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Though stock are falling, the weakening dollar pushing oil upper. Coming out of an intermediate bottom is always a strong surge. That's why you cant short it. Oil will use every possibiity to rally even bad news....
Komen
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*Even on bad news..
Komen
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Komen
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I hope today everybody understood why I said no shorts in the first daily cycle in oil. Who was not long but stayed at the sidelines at least didn't lose money by shorting. We will get that red day soon.
Komen
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Thank god I posted this. I think we saved a lot of money for you from the oil short gurus. (Like Gartman)
Komen
YACCINE
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THANK U VERY MUCH SIR
U R THE BEST
RobertZafaras
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Arpi, The option trade has influenced the latest rally to a great extent. Since expiration is Wednesday, volatility increases. The Sept 45 put open interest over 16,000 has caused somewhat
of a short squeeze here. Delta hedging has added to this rally. I would expect this squeeze to alleviate after Wednesday and a pull back should be in order on Thursday/Friday. Going long puts on
the October contract looks like a good play on Wednesday. thanks bob
chartwatchers
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Possible. I'M waiting for a red candle this week.
PF7
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This post should be called: "Revenge of the Fallen" :)
Thanks for your ideas!
Patrik
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Well spoken, Sir
newwarez2
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Man, you are always right !!!
bertcoin
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Yep - took your advice last week and when it looked up this morning, bot UWTI at the open. Thank you!
EnergyCorridor
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Wonderful call back to ~$49! Now what that we are here? Or do we need to run up to above $50 before any future direction to be determined?
danbar
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Please let us know what your thoughts in regard to oil are as of today?
DenverNugt
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OPEC freeze when we go below 20 $ next year maybe : ) this move done by the bank hard to catch and hold on to a first red pin bar on a hour chart my entry short sl one bar
U R THE BEST