After breaking down the 200 MA 8 days ago oil recovered. We had 2 down days and almost tested back the 200 MA again. I was waiting for a trick but it seems Saudis really want now oil to go up again. So their statement was true yesterday as today we had a follow through. I catched the bottom at the 200 MA so I'M not worried missing these 2 days. I'M almost sure that we are not going to break below 39$. The rally is starting.
Today we broke above the 50 EMA. Usually we have a small pullback from this level - 1 red candle- so I'm planning to add to my position on Monday. If you nervous to get left behind at the station one can start a position today before the close and add on Monday. We will be buying every dip from now as a new intermediate cycle is starting. We have weeks to run.
Komen
Givingthelowdown
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Price will reverse at 46.85....its an AB=CD trade with TP at 35.80
AaronSwan
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Sir I missed todays action and was wondering do you sill see a retrace to 43? And when do expect another good entry point?
glewing123
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Hey Chart thanks for all your analysis.. I really want to get long but do not want to chase this move. Hope for pull back, but also am a bit concerned about certain fundamentals heading out of summer; I am thinking the 50daysma gives this run some pause and pull back. currently around $45.80. Do you agree? Its also very likely that the large short positions/covering continue to run this up. very similar to what happened last August.
AaronSwan
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First and foremost great analysis, I personally have worked in the energy sector for nearly a decade after being laid off due to the collapse in crude oil prices. I have dabbled in the commodity sector for a few years here and there. You would be surprised at how many engineers actually day trade during extensive times in remote locations around the world. That is where I got my tutelage on the fundamentals and market reaction to crude oil. I watch all reports to include the Rig counts, API, and EIA inventory reports. I am stunned at how little the commodity experts really know about the exploration and production. In fact, I recently enrolled into a University to obtain an IT and Finance degree. But to your analysis, what I like outside of fundamentals and find to efficient in trading is technical analysis. That is what brought me to your charts. I have some knowledge of EW, but find it to be a little too complex in some cases. I mean ok wave to initiates then 3 is the longest blah blah blah. What I want to know more about are the cycles and price action. I will be watching you and since you are lock and step with the fundamental improvement I want to say great job so far.
chartwatchers
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Thanks for the support Aaron.
I think every chart analysis is good if someone know how to use it. I find EW a bit subjective : if you set the first wave right you are winner otherwise you lose.
Any comment is always very welcome from you at my posts.
RazvanIon
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You forgot about 46 zone? is there a sell zone.
GoGreen
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RSI is over bought, don't you think we should wait for RSI to take a dip?
Tenbears1979
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Great call. To this point it's left me behind because I was waiting on that double bottom that never happened. Did not want to jump in today because I'd rather get in on a pullback.
Nightstar
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That's why it's important to 'scale' in instead of trying to time the exact bottom -- a mistake far too common amongst new traders. Now you're sitting on the sideline waiting for a pull-back.. but what if we don't get it right away?
Tenbears1979
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Then I wait and don't compound one mistake with another. Opportunities always come around again.