USOIL Appears to have just completed a zigzag , and we could now be heading towards significantly lower prices later this year. Potentially, this looks like it could be forming a long-term triangle like I have drawn, if that is accurate, we should get one more wave down to around 26 again, and then from there we should continue up to a new all-time-high. This will likely take a few years to pan out but it does seem like we're beginning a new downtrend right now.
The implications of an oil crash right now are pretty dire, considering many firms barely survived the last one. If this next leg down happens it may bankrupt many smaller oil companies that have taken on significant debt to survive, which will likely create a significant drag on the economy and the stock market. However, it could eventually lead to a reduction in production after many companies go bankrupt, which could eventually lead to significantly higher oil prices.
Komen
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Due to the recent price action, it seems likely that we'll continue sideways/up for the next few weeks, before ultimately breaking down like previously forecasted. Most likely this will be waves-4 and 5 of wave-(c), like the new chart shows.
This is only a very minor change to the count. The long-term triangle is still in play, as well as the zigzag for wave-[d], meaning we should get a major downtrend starting at some point this year, which could take us back under 30.
Komen
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Based on the new information I've had to invalidate the old count. The new count makes a lot more sense because in a normal zigzag there should be strong time differences between the impulses and the correction, however, that was not present here, waves-b and -c are actually exactly related by 1.0 in time. All waves also appear to be corrective so it's highly likely that we are forming a diametric.
Because this is actually a diametric and not a zigzag, it will be very difficult to predict what should happen price-wise. I would say dropping to somewhere between 60-56 is very likely, while dropping down to 44 is a small possibility. However, it should be easy to predict the end of this next correction, which will take about 1 year long.
Komen
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Also when I take into account the much larger picture, it's possible that we started forming the diametric all the way back in 2008, and that the whole wave is part of an even larger diametric. More importantly, we could be nearing the end of this 10+ year long correction, sometime next year.
At the end of this correction we're likely to see an epic bull run on oil that could go extremely high. This will likely be fueled by global military and economic conflicts and the subsequent crashing of the value of fiat currency from these conflicts and from massive debts governments have built up over time. I'm really not sure how big wave-g is going to be, but it should end around 1 year from now, which will be when the beginning of a very large bull run on oil begins.
@Intuit, I would love to see an update on this wave count. It has followed along your revised count quick nicely, but it is now getting past the point where an update would be amazing. I am more interesting in knowing this for my day job (risk manager for a bank located in a major oil and gas region). Thanks for the work you do.
Johnnysharp
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Update??
420snoop
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I have 76.5
Johnnysharp
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Still watching this one. Intuit, any updates on your predicted crypto correction / LTC?
Voluntarist007
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Thumbs up. Finally the rainmaker has returned to tv. I still owe you for your awesome crypto ideas.
Johnnysharp
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Please post a crypto chart :)
TreeDoc
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The longer term direction has to be considered. What you describe above is entirely possible given the fact hydrocarbons will be slowly phased out.