PRICE ANALYSIS: 1 - Dominant trend remains bearish in DAILY chart - See larger scale analysis here: bit.ly/1n5q3Wj 2 - This 4-HOUR chart highlights circumstantial technical evidence of an interim rally: -- First bullish failure sets price into a descending series of 0.386-Fibonacci retracements -- Last retracement represents a higher-order of Fibonacci level, implying nascent bulls overcoming bears 3 - A larger retracement is expected to occur up to 42.57, or approximating 0.618-Fib of the overall decline:
RSI ANALYSIS: 1 - A series of negative divergences (not bearish divergence) heralded a high-probability decline -- A negative divergence occurs where RSI carves a higher-high against a lower lower or double-top in price - Expect a significant decline once this high-probability event occurs (higher prob than bearish divergences) -- Each negative divergences occurred with a single penetration of the 70-Line - Bears are pressing against bulls -- The most recent RSI illustrates a double 70-Line validation - Bulls are pressing against bears.
USOil - DAILY Chart:
USOil - 4-HOUR Chart:
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
---- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster -----
.
Komen
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01 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price remains tethered to dashed line as forecast ... Expect the following range to impose first support, then resistance:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
02 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As forecast, price continues its retracement to pre-defined range. Expect significant support at that level, and a bullish reprise to the resistance range also pre-defined this week:
David Alcindor
Komen
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ADDENDUM ... Tech-Note: Volume
In terms of volume, look for decline representing bearish fatigue, followed by a volume SPIKE to indicate a bottom ("Stopping Volume"), then an increase in volume representing the aforementioned bullish reprise.
Whereas this volume behavior is not a condition for reversal signal, it would help provide a technical clue to the expected price action.
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
02 FEB 2016 - Tech-Note:
Looking purely at the relative strength between the UKOIL versus the USOIL, it becomes evident in the #brent/#crude chart that BRENT has a relative advance against the US counter-part.
What I would look at is the historical tendencies of the UKOIL to lead USOIL, and the consequent elasticity that has tended to bring the laggard to parity with its leader.
In terms of individual chart, I am still expecting a retracement to the UP-side in the #crude, such that its value "catches up" with that of the leading #brent.
However, in the net analysis, the forecast remains intact and in force, with USOIL aiming for 21.02, as per last year's forecast.
Best,
David Alcindor
PS: Here is the link to the original UKOil vs. USOil chart - Click to link:
- David
Komen
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05 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for this potential ab = cd reciprocal symmetry:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
09 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry completion, as it nears a concomitant double bottom :
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for this probable support range (PINK arrow) as price continues to oscillate around the 27.53 support:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
16 FEB 2016 - News:
- WAJ: Not Even a Wave of Oil Bankruptcies Will Shrink Crude Production on.wsj.com/1Ls8tRY via @WSJMoneyBeat
David
Komen
⋅
22 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:
As forecast, price has rallied from its projected base, now carving higher-highs towards the bullish H4 target: (Source: bit.ly/1P4yLv7 )
As mentioned in the original analysis, this bullish target represent a high-probability retracement, pending a bearish target which remains unanswered in the DAILY timeframe: (Source: bit.ly/1n5q3Wj )
Also noted in the analysis is the elastic correlation between the UKOIL and the USOIL, wherein the latter is expected to "catch up" with the former, in a manner that should reduce their differential - In effect, the following chart is thus expected to decline to the level forecast:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
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25 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:
As price continues to rally from its defined base, watch for 33.57 as a significant structural/resistance level, which if breached, would likely signal a bullish resumption:
David Alcindor
Komen
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05 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Retracement continues to unfold to the upside, as forecast, with price nearing the first of three expected Fibonacci levels ... 42.57 residing slightly above 0.618 remains a pending structural target:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
17 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to hit the Fibonacci levels and inches closer to the structural 42.57 target:
Expect significant time-consumptive consolidation as this level nears.
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
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17 MAR 2016 - Addendum:
The UKOil vs. USOil relative strength MONTHLY chart remains intent on its 0.92 target:
This suggests that as the USOIL (posted just a few minutes ago) gains ground towards its target, it is also gaining strength against its UKOIL acolyte, expressed in this current chart.
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
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17 MAR 2016 - Addendum #2:
Just as important, this DAILY chart provides a larger granular detail of the 4-hour chart just posted, with an Elliott Wave development which suggests that the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target defined now over a year ago on February 04th, 2015 as 21.02, remains a high-probability event:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Looking at the UKOIL versus USOIL relative strength, the parity line (whereby UKOil = USOil) was reached, and price immediately rallied from thereon.
This is the FIRST parity hit. As you may recall, the UKOil has been a relatively good "feeler" for directional bias, such that as it remains above the value of USOil, it suggests that USOil has yet to rally.
Now that the parily value has been reached, we are to consider the possibility of a reversal, which is occurring in the vicinity of the 0.618-Fibonacci level, which has been hit, whereas the 42.57 remains a PROBABLE target at this time.
Best,
David Alcindor
PS: I am developing a course aimed for experienced traders, so I will need to look at your prior charts, analysis and performance before taking you on - Space is limited to 12 traders per year, as I will aim to provide day-to-day targets before public release, personal trade review, personal coaching and teaching of proprietary patterns and methods (AFT, EAGLE, personal RSI systems, proprietary pattern - Janus, Great White - Price/Volume Analysis).
Komen
⋅
Here is the associated chart#1:
David Alcindor
Komen
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... And the Relative Strength ("RS") chart between UKOIL and USOIL:
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
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14 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:
As per forecast, price has carved higher highs, surpassing the technical 0.618-Fib level, and now consolidating near the 42.57 forecast level - This target remains pending, in force and likely to play out a reversal:
Interim, short-term target at 42.57 has finally been hit. Now, expect market to enter a consolidating pattern with high-probability reversal at the 43.57/44.75 range:
For those learning about the GEO construction, see how price is winding around the 2-4-Line transposed off of Point-3 to define Point-5' )called point five prime).
David Alcindor
Komen
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24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Overall, the relative strength between UKOIL and USOIL remains above the parity line, which means that #Brent continues to lead in value over that of WTI:
However, what the smaller 4-Hour timeframe suggests is a probable reversal at the 42.57/44.75 range:
Hence, look specifically for a move underneath the PARITY line as a probable indication that WTI is taking over the lead, reversing the relative strength to fractional values.
What the Predictive/Forecasting Model forecasts is a 0.92 attainment, whereas the same Model forecasts 21.02 USOIL value, defined last February 2015, over a year ago.
Best,
David Alcindor
Komen
⋅
05 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for bear entrenchment at 50.90 - A double-top and symmetrical ab = cd reciprocity awaits there:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
PS-1: I now offer a private course to advanced technical traders - Only 1-2 students per month, since this is an open-ended course in which I reveal all proprietary patterns and methods, including the "secret" method I have been using to predict and forecast all and any financial markets - If interested, take a look at the generic course outline (each course is tailored to the student, based on proficiency level) here: bit.ly/1U0tIka - David
PS-2: For those living in the US, I am considering a one-time one-on-one day-long course in person if this is at all possible in our mutual schedule - The student is welcome to travel to my home in Durango, Colorado, Colorado, or I would consider traveling to student home or workplace, just to get myself out of the mountain - David
Komen
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08 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Pattern completion: Kiss of Death
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
08 JUN 2016 - Addendum:
Watch for this structural support from expected reactive decline as price completes this BEARISH Kiss of Death pattern:
Best,
David
Komen
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08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-2:
Predictive/Forecasting Model's target at 21.02 defined on February 2015 remain intact and in force:
Best,
David
Komen
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08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-3:
Crude Oil ETF (W11!) - Daily Chart:
Here, expect a limited reactive rally from 29.350, up to 41.175, and a probable resumption of bearish trend down to 16.325.
Regards,
David
Komen
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08 JUN 2016 - Chart update:
Hit Target in M15 chart (announced this morning on Twitter):
Expect bearish entrenchment at this highlighted level.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
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09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
M15 may provide an early bearish tack indication ... Best is to wait for breach of pattern base at Pt-A:
David Alcindor, CMT #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
As forecast, price continues to roll from top-reversal target:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
10 JUN 2016 - Addendum:
Most proximal target is geometric - Other targets from Model are more bearish.
Best,
David
Komen
⋅
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Most immediate target remains geometric:
ST target is structural:
LT target remains 21.02, defined last FEB 2015:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update: Target HIT:
... 2 more to go:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
13 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Reactive bulls to recent onslaught remain able to push back price to 0.61-Fib = 50.30 - A rally to 52.18 is possible, but less probable:
Overall, bears remain in control, with a LT target still unanswered at 21.02, as per forecast defined nearly 1.5 year ago.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
14 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
This #oil market remains in the grips of bear and refused to give bull time to regain some air at the surface - Moving on up to the larger timeframe:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
This is an adjustment to last estimated retracement forecast ... Price remains under bearish influence, and an interim rally to the 50.013 vicinity is probable:
Overall, bears remain in charge, with LT target still eyed at 21.02, as defined at the beginning of last year (FEB 201).
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
Komen
⋅
15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
M15 level forecast expects a slight rally to a limited upside, but higher-timeframe bears remain the dominant forces - A Model's anticipated weak support exists at 46.47, whereas subsequent rally is expected to be shallower in the 38.6-Fib retracement level, corresponding to a structural resistance:
As per long-term forecast, 21.02 remains unanswered, representing the probable target for the time being, best appreciated in the Weekly frame - Predictive analyses and forecast at smaller time frames remain increasingly unreliable:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
Komen
⋅
21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Happy FIRST day of summer!
As we depart from the M15 timeframe, following is the H1 with a dashed pathway of a probable price action, as bears continue to dominate the field:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:
Look for probable exhaustion moves in the 51.01 vicinity:
TSLA Forecast Hit ALL FEB 2015 Targets: Moving On Up To Weekly Chart:
David Alcindor, CMT Affilaite #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
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07 JUL 2016 - Tech-Note:
Watch for USOIL decline - Just released a signal where price was expected to turn ... It now did, and we expect a significant decline to 30.58.IF price BACA < 45.82, then expect the following sequence:
1 - Significant fall to 38.63;
2 - Bullish reaction pushing back to about 43.40 (not likely higher than structural support-turned-resistance level of 45.82;
3 - Then a resumption to the 30.58 level.This sequence is generated off of the Predictive/Forecasting Model:
Price has remained true to forecast, first as hitting and reversing from the extremely narrow target range of 51.58/51.70 I had provided, and then remaining subdued under that level, as further forecast:
Most recently, I forecast a slight reactive rally before another head-strong decline, which is just what occurred this morning:
OVERALL:
As forecast way back in February 2015 (now over 1.5 years ago), the 21.02 target remains intact and in force.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
Komen
⋅
25 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price cedes to 45.82 level as forecast. Bearish momentum carries on as per predictive analysis:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
28 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
01 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
42.22 consumed ... 36.63 next as per forecast:
Longer-term forecast remains intact and in force as well, with 21.02 as target, defined last year:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Komen
⋅
02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to fall, carving lower-lows as per forecast. There is a market-wide expectation of an inverted Head-and-Shoulder pattern formation. Watch for incursion below 37.73 as decreasing probability of such pattern formation - 30.58 remains the next probable level of attainement:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
03 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
... Shoulders chopped and heads rolling?
Don't get faked out: A push-back from the next target level at 38.63 may rally to 45.82 and resume its primary bearish tack.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
08 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price rallies as per dashed line forecast; Look for resistance near 45.82:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
11 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
12 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for this reciprocal ab=cd symmetry developing towards limited bullish target:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
15 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price completes the reciprocal ab=cd symmetry, nears 45.82 target:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
22 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:
Price remains tethered to dashed forecast line. Now rolls from 48.55/48.73 range defined defined this past 18 AUG 2016 in Twitter:
Long-term target remains bearish as seen in WEEKLY chart, where a 1.5 year old target remains intact and in force:
Regards,
David Alcindor CMT Affiliate #227974
Komen
⋅
28 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As a correlative analysis, looking at the XLE, here is a potential risk pathway:
Critical levels are illustrated perstill-speculative inverted H&S levels - Regardless, this remains a net-bearish proposition.
Returning to the USOIL-60-Min. chart, one can expect the most immediate target to remain relevant, especially in the XLE risk narrative where a decline to a lower-low defining the second inverted shoulder would remain consistent with the short-term bear.
Overall, large vascillations in USOIL may result if XLE pathway comes true.
For an alternate, moderate forecast, consider the following chart, in which 81.81 aligns 0.618-Fib along a pertinent R/S level: tradingview.com/x/GDDBBRPi/l
Again, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains net-bearish in the long-term as far as USOIL is concerned, despite a possible interim short-term correction in the broader energy asset class represented by this XLE chart.
Again, price remains tethered to overall forecast trajectory - Current precipitous decline remains in line with short term forecast - See following 1-hour chart:
... As well as long-term forecast:
Regards,
David Alcindor CMT Affiliate #227974 Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter) CROW Signal Service provider CROW Code Instructor
Komen
⋅
03 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for these levels, as price is expected to carve lower-lows:
Regards,
David Alcindor CMT Affiliate #227974 Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter) CROW Signal Provider CROW Code Instructor
Komen
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#CROWSignalService - WTI: Target HIT as forecast ... L/T target in force:
Thanks for sharing but I guess $30 should be a stronger support level than the Fib retracement level at this moment. Lets see and good luck :)
abail
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David, in which way do the recent oil movements affect your analysis? Regards
4xForecaster
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@abail - I have moved all predictive/forecasting comments to a private signal service. By agreement with TradingView, I cannot offer link or message about it ... Sort of a catch-22, if I even mention about it as in this mere comment.
If and once TradingView offers a private paid room with anonymous members, as I had to do off site, I might be able to speak more of the service. Until then, I might chime in from time to time, but not as overtly and frequently as before.
Feel free to recommend to TradingView that it starts offering a "signal Service" option by its members, as I'd love to keep all of my charting and analyses "within the same house", so to speak.
Warmest regards,
David Alcindor
muskie32
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Hi David Excellent analysis. Do you expect a bounce once your target is reached at 39.68 or do you think price will slice on thru to your short term target of 30.58? Great work.
4xForecaster
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Hello muskie32 - Reasonable expectation in terms of pathway:
The targets are generated through quantitative data ("CROW Code"), compared to generic Fibonacci projection levels.
David
coolingla
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Highly unlikely oil will go down to $30 any time soon. $51 is my first target, likely be reach by 10/31/2016.
Let's see what happens in the next 1-2 months.
coolingla
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Looking back 3 months later, I am sorry to say the author is dead wrong.